Global installations of solar PV in 2016 are expected to reach 64.7 GW in 2016, according to new figures provided by Mercom Capital Group.
Mercom Capital Group released its forecasts for 2016 this week, predicting installations would conclude at 57.8 GW in 2015, and then grow to 64.7 GW in 2016, with China leading the way with approximately 19.5 GW to be installed in 2016.
“The largest markets in 2016 will again be China, the United States and Japan; the United States is set to overtake Japan as the second largest solar market behind China,” said Raj Prabhu, CEO and Co-Founder of Mercom Capital Group. “These three countries will account for about 65 percent of installations next year.”
China has already installed almost 10 GW so far this year, well ahead of the 3.79 GW it had installed over the first three quarters of 2014. Though curtailment and delayed subsidy payments still remain an issue, the recent announcement of an additional 5.3 GW installation quota with a completion deadline of June, 2016, is likely to speed things along.
Looking beyond China, Mercom expects to see the United States install 13 GW in 2016, becoming the second largest solar market in the world behind China. Japan will install about 9 GW, despite grid issues, curtailment, and a reduced feed-in tariff. India will install about 2.15 GW, the UK around 2.8 GW, Germany approximately 1.5 GW, and France 1.1 GW.
The prime growth factor for the United States over the next 13 months is the rush to get in before the closure of the 30% investment tax credit (ITC) that is due to drop to 10% in 2017. There is a slim chance this could be extended beyond 2016, but the industry is not betting on anything.