IHS Predicts Record Solar PV Module Production & Shipment Through First Half Of 2016
Originally published on Solar Love
Analytics company IHS has predicted solar PV production and shipments to skyrocket through the first half of 2016.
In a new forecast published Monday, IHS concluded that “installation deadlines, sunsetting solar tax credits, and other policy dynamics of the two largest global solar markets, China and the United States,” are going to push solar PV production through the roof. IHS predicts that 2015 will see an increase of 33% in global solar PV installations, reaching 58.7 GW, and though that will soften somewhat in 2016 — growth slowing to only 12%, reaching 65.5 GW — the first half of the year will reflect existing situations.
Specifically, anti-dumping trade disputes in the US market will prevent prices from falling through the first half of the year. IHS warned in late-October of a potential shortage of solar PV wafers in the US market, which is also going to play a part in H1’16 production issues.
“Given the current shortage, wafer prices might still rise for a few months, despite declining polysilicon prices,” said Edurne Zoco, senior manager and principal analyst, IHS Technology.
Recently announced additional solar PV quotas in China are expected to be connected by June, 2016, in order to be eligible for 2015 incentives.
Beyond the first half of 2016, however, IHS predicts average selling prices (ASPs) are likely to fall along the module value-chain. IHS predicts a stalling of utility-scale production, which throughout 2017 will see a 7.8 GW decline in annual installations, though the remainder of the global solar PV market will continue to grow, at an estimated 11% in 2017.
“Global PV demand for 2017 will slow, which will adversely affect module ASPs and margins in the second half of 2016,” Zoco said. “There will be some buildup of inventory, and module price declines will be much heavier than they were in 2015 and during the first half of 2016. A slump in global PV demand in 2017 looks increasingly likely, as the United States is expected to suffer a major decline in 2017, following planned significant reductions in the country’s investment tax credit.”
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So how do we tell our elected representatives we want the solar tax credit extended? Who wants to draft up a petition???
How about we tell them that FiT should Never Decline until all oil subsidies end.
How does the expected tax-driven downturn in PV in the USA in 1917 lead to a global slump in sales? It’s under a quarter of the pv market, and because it’s the result of aa local policy change, other markets should not be affected. Indeed they may well take up much of the slack.
Or convince the US that its anti-dumping trade tariffs to help a foreign company, is killing a lot more jobs, and raising cost for a lot more people. Than the small number it might save. The only one benefiting from it is coal and NG companies, oh wait, Nevet mind.