The International Energy Agency produced a World Energy Outlook special briefing today to reveal the energy sector implications of the national climate pledges (INDCs) submitted to the UN for its the upcoming climate summit in Paris (COP21). IEA estimates that in order to implement the climate investment pledges made to the UN by world leaders, the global energy industry must invest $13.5 trillion through 2030 in efficiency measures and low-carbon technologies. IEA’s analysis includes deployment of nuclear, wind, and solar power plus carbon capture and storage technologies. Download the briefing here.
The expenditure needs to average $840 billion every year from 2015. Over 150 countries, which represent 90% of global economic activity and nearly 90% of energy-related greenhouse gas emissions, have submitted pledges to date.
Low-carbon technologies must begin to lead energy sector investment. Growth in emissions from the energy sector slows dramatically if the existing INDCs are implemented fully. Says IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol:
“These pledges, together with the increasing engagement of the energy industry, are helping to build the necessary political momentum around the globe to seal a successful climate agreement. The energy industry needs a strong and clear signal. Failing to send this signal will push energy investments in the wrong direction, locking-in unsustainable energy infrastructure for decades.”
“If these pledges are met, then countries currently accounting for more than half of global economic activity will see their energy-related greenhouse gas emissions either plateau or be in decline by 2030,” says a report in India’s Economic Times.
IEA estimates that improving energy efficiency in the transport, building, and industry sectors will take up 60% of the funds. Much of the remaining investment there will go to decarbonizing the power sector. Over 60% of the total investment in power generation will go to renewables capacity: one-third to wind power, almost 30% for solar, and around 25% for hydropower.
The IEA also warns, as other organizations and scientists have done recently, that the current pledges will not contain post-Industrial Revolution global temperature rise to the current UN target of 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit). Rather, the organization sees an imminent 2.7-degree rise.
Next month (November 10), the IEA will release its latest annual World Energy Outlook. The WEO will show the latest energy and climate developments and explore their implications for global energy security, economic development, and the environment.