A new report from GTM Research forecasts 55 GW of solar PV to be installed globally in 2015, up 36% on 2014’s installation figures.
GTM’s figures are published in its latest report, Global PV Demand Outlook, 2015-2015: Exploring Risk in Downstream Solar Markets. The analyst firm believes that, led by China, the Asia Pacific region will drive global solar PV installation in 2015, installing more than half of all global PV in 2015. If GTM’s forecasts are accurate, 2014 will go down as a “transitional year” with only 2% market growth, while GTM believes 2015 will end up being a “transcendent year.”
Annual PV Demand (GW) by Region
“China has emerged as the largest global market for PV, underpinned by a new feed-in tariff program and ambitious solar goals under the Five Year Plan,” writes report author and GTM Research Solar Analyst Adam James.
GTM Research is predicting China will install 14 GW of the Asia Pacific region’s 30 GW of solar PV in 2015, while “Europe will begin an upswing, and North America, primarily the United States, will continue its year-over-year growth.” Specifically, GTM Research predicts Europe’s share of the global PV market will crash at 21%, before growing again in 2016, installing 42 GW and accounting for 31% of the global solar PV market.
PV Demand by Region, 2001-2020E
The United States will be the third-ranked solar PV market in 2015 behind China and Japan, according to GTM, installing approximately 8 GW, equating to 14% of the global PV market.
As can be seen by the immediate chart above, GTM is expecting a number of new players to begin affecting the global solar PV market, with the traditional markets seeing costs continuing to fall, allowing a greater era of solar PV competitiveness.
“One profound change in the global landscape is that emerging regional markets – such as Latin America, Africa and the Middle East – are expected to grow from their historical levels of 1 percent of annual demand to 17 percent over the next five years,” said James.
“Our core thesis is that solar is poised for exponential growth that will help it account for roughly half of new capacity out to 2020,” added James. “While solar demand will grow almost everywhere, there are some key drivers, including unprecedented demand in emerging markets, the evolution of grid parity in Europe, and massive headroom in developing countries such as China and India.”
GTM’s report comes at the same time as Mercom Capital released its own forecasts for 2015 global solar installations, predicting a slightly higher 57.4 GW, with China, Japan, and the United States expected to lead the pack.
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