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Electric Truck + Bus Sales Expected To Surge 10-Fold Between Now & 2023, According to Navigant Research

Originally published on EV Obsession.

Electric truck and bus sales are expected to surge 10-fold between now and 2023, according to a new report from Navigant Research.

The report in question predicts that worldwide sales of battery-electric and electric-assisted commercial vehicles will increase from less than 16,000 in 2014 to over 160,000 a year by the year 2023. Overall penetration rates for the technology in the wider market are expected to remain relatively low, though.

image

Unsurprisingly, the highest growth will be seen with regard to commercial applications that involve lots of start-stop driving in urban environments, according to the report — an environment where battery-electric or hybrid vehicles have many notable advantages over conventional vehicles.

“Overall, we expect diesel hybrid drive to remain the most popular of the electrically assisted medium- and heavy-duty vehicle powertrains for the whole of the forecast period,” stated David Alexander, senior research analyst with Navigant Research. “Battery-electric commercial vehicles will also see growth in demand within urban fleets that average low daily mileage.”

Despite the aforementioned prediction that overall penetration rates for electric-drive trucks and buses will remain relatively low (rising from 0.4% in 2014 to 2.9% in 2023), specific regions will actually see high-growth. In particular, Japan is expected to see the figure reach 21.2% by 2023.

Other regions that see relatively high penetration rates will be this that share common qualities with Japan — dense urban environments and a government looking to cut down on pollution and carbon emissions.

Those interested can find in the full-report — Electric Drive Trucks and Buses — can find an executive summary here.

Image Credit: Navigant Research

 
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Written By

James Ayre's background is predominantly in geopolitics and history, but he has an obsessive interest in pretty much everything. After an early life spent in the Imperial Free City of Dortmund, James followed the river Ruhr to Cofbuokheim, where he attended the University of Astnide. And where he also briefly considered entering the coal mining business. He currently writes for a living, on a broad variety of subjects, ranging from science, to politics, to military history, to renewable energy.

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