With one more month still to go, plug-in hybrid electric (PHEV) and 100%-electric car sales in the US have already surpassed the 100,000 unit mark for the year, according to the most recent numbers out of the industry.
This is if you include an estimate of 16,500 sales for Tesla, which is a decent estimate. Tesla is estimating it will deliver 33,000 Tesla Model S sedans in 2014. In the third quarter, Tesla said the majority of its deliveries were in North America. If you assume 30,000 Model S sedans were delivered through November and just half of those were in the US, you get 16,500.
With the 16,500 Tesla sales and the other 83,647 electric car sales through November (excluding the Fiat 500e, which is a compliance car with minimal sales… which are also not reported), then you get 100,147 electric car sales in the US through November.
The estimate for last year’s full-year total is 95,099. So, we’ve already surpassed last year’s total.
On the other hand, electric car sales are still minimal, and growth in 2014 was much lower than growth in 2013.
Gas 2 provides some more thoughts:
Of course, some will say that the total number of plug in and EV cars sold is a mere drop in the bucket compared to the number of conventional cars being purchased. Industry analysts expect total vehicle sales in the US market to top 17 million in 2014. But the trend toward EVs and plug-ins is growing. Navigant Research predicts they will account for about 2.5% of all sales worldwide by 2023.
While the overall trend looks likely to continue over the long term, people are notoriously short-sighted when acting on the population level — this recent dip in gas prices may very well see EV/PHEV sales drop somewhat, as people use it as an opportunity to revert to old opinions.
The recent drop in gas prices is likely to spell the end of the recent “Saudi America fracking boom” (lol), though, so don’t be surprised to see gas prices (and possibly other commodity prices as well) become a bit volatile over the next year.
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