The European wind market is expected to stabilise this year, after a decline in 2013, with a 2.5% year-over-year growth. And while short-term outlooks for Europe’s wind energy industry show declining wind demand, consulting firm MAKE believe that, in the long term, the European wind market will grow 2.1% per year between 2014 to 2023.
An emailed press release from MAKE made the rounds early this week, highlighting the “Near term wind turbine demand risk in Europe despite steady growth to 2020.” MAKE forecasts that there should be consistent growth in the European wind market up to 2020, before “policy relaxation and a continuing path towards less ambitions goals for 2030” impact the industry’s growth.
Figures from MAKE’s Europe Wind Power Outlook 2014 forecast the European wind market to install 136 GW of new capacity over the outlook period, reaching a cumulative capacity base of 258 GW by 2023. “Europe is strengthening its position as the second largest regional market in the world after Asia-Pacific,” notes MAKE’s press release.
New European wind power capacity is mostly expected to be centered in the north, with just over 60%, reaching an annual peak demand of 10 GW by 2020 thanks to policy targets and almost 4 GW of offshore wind. Southern Europe is expected to account for 26%, and Eastern Europe accounting for the remaining 14%.
More specifically, offshore wind accounted for 12% of all new grid-connected capacity in Europe in 2013, reaching 1.5 GW for the year. Another 1.8 GW is expected to be grid-connected by the end of 2014, increasing to more than 4 GW at the end of the forecast period.
The European wind industry has been one of the most exciting to watch over the past few years, but many analysts suggest that this trend will slow, as policy focuses its attention elsewhere and a mature industry continues apace.
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