Cars

Published on September 7th, 2014 | by Christopher DeMorro

32

Tesla Model X Reservations Keep Climbing (Chart)

September 7th, 2014 by  

model-x-falcon-wing-doors

GAS2.

The Tesla factory has been retooled to begin Model X production any day now, and the electric automaker has plenty of work to look forward to. According to the dedicated sleuths of the Tesla Motors forum, reservations for the Tesla Model X have exceeded 20,000 units as of today. But don’t pop the champagne yet.

Back in March we reported that there were some 12,000 Model X reservations logged since the electric SUV debuted back in 2012. Since then though, reservations have only accelerated, and while Tesla won’t officially confirm the numbers, crowd-sourced reservation numbers indicate that approximately 20,159 deposits have been placed so far. That’s about 43.6 orders per day, and in the month of August alone 1,353 reservations were made, with the average monthly reservation rate more than doubling in the past year.

The chart below highlights just how much the reservation rate has accelerated.

model-x-chart

So where are those orders coming from? Naturally, a majority of the orders come from either the United States or Canada, though Europe and Asia Pacific (including China and Australia) made up about 25% of total Model X reservations. But with more than 14,000 orders in the US alone, America has once again solidified its status as the land of the SUV.

It’s not all peachy for the Fremont, California car company though. Even with new manufacturing tools increasing production to as much as 3,000 vehicles per week, the assembly line still has to be split with the Model S. If Tesla dedicates 50% of its total capacity to the Model X, it would take more than a year just to work through the orders it already has. And despite a cheery newsletter sent to current reservation holders, there are still a lot of unanswered questions surrounding the Model X and its fancy falcon-wing doors.

The hype is reaching a fever pitch, even though a firm price hasn’t been set, nor has there been much discussion about range. By the time production of the Model X actually starts, reservations could easily exceed 25,000 units. Meanwhile, Elon Musk says salespeople have been actively discouraging Model X reservations, instead steering customers into a Model S, at least for now.

I guess the hype is real, huh?

Originally published on GAS2. Reproduced with permission.


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About the Author

A writer and gearhead who loves all things automotive, from hybrids to HEMIs, can be found wrenching or writing- or else, he's running, because he's one of those crazy people who gets enjoyment from running insane distances.



  • Mac1177

    My wife has just ordered her’s a few weeks ago and was given the number in the high 13,900s. I can not wait to get it!!!

    We already own a Nissan LEAF and love everything about it except for the range.

  • alain

    90% of the fun of something , is waitiing for it! People will have lots of fun for the next years , ah enjoy!

  • Offgridman

    To the author, don’t understand why you are expressing doubts about the range of the Model X, unless as you comment about with others it is the only thing you could find to hype.
    In the notification to the reservation holders there are several references about the functionality promised at the Model X reveal to be met or exceeded, with a guarantee of supercharger access. So with these reassurances from the company, and the fact that the Tesla battery manufacturing and management has continued to improve every year since the release of the S, how do you validate your doubts that there will be any issues with the range of the Model X?

  • Philip W

    I love how they ‘approximate’ 20,159 orders xD

    But those numbers are pretty incredible, Tesla can´t even ramp up production fast enough. I wonder if they are able to fullfill the exponentially growing demand. Gigafactory will help certainly but it still takes a lot of time for it to come online.

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    • WeaponZero

      With the Panasonic upgrade and the Tesla upgrade. They will be at 100,000 production rate in 2015. And 150,000 production rate in 2016. And 2017 gigafactory comes online, might even come online at end of 2016.

      • Philip W

        Yes but if you consider that they need to produce the Model X with the same production line, then 100k doesn´t sound like a huge increase compared to this years 35k.
        Ofcourse I still hope that they´ll be able to fullfill demand without exorbitant long waiting times 🙂

        • Offgridman

          If I remember the number right, the Model S production is only using 20% of the usable space in the Fremont factory, leaving plenty of space to set up lines for the Model X and the coming Tesla3.
          While there might be slight delays getting the lines established and tuned up once production starts they will be able to keep cranking on all three models.
          A couple years back National Geographic did a show on Megafactories featuring the Tesla plant (available on YouTube), give it a watch to see what they are capable of doing if you want to see what I am talking about.

          • Philip W

            Thank you for that piece of information, Offgridman!

            I didn´t know that Fremont factory was so big. That makes me a lot more optimistic.

            Here´s the Youtube link to the documentary if somebody hasn´t seen it yet: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y7V5DLl3L0o

          • Offgridman

            Glad to help out and like with my comment for the author just trying to stop the continuation of fud.
            And thank you for posting the link for the show, I have a hassle doing it sometimes from my phone.

          • Philip W

            I certainly don´t have FUD. I´m studying electrical engineering for a reason. The switch can´t happen fast enough, every vehicle needs to be electric yesterday 😉

          • Offgridman

            I have to admit to be getting to be somewhat of an old fart myself so could be misapplying the term fud.
            And definitely didn’t mean anything personally, as a retired engineer it is important to me that the information, in this case the manufacturing capabilities of Tesla, or in reference to the author the probable range of the X, be discussed in as accurate a format as possible.
            Good fortune with your schooling, I am envious imagining the tech you are going to have a chance to play with in the immediate and longer term future.

          • Philip W

            I couldn´t tell, english is not my mother tongue so I heard the term FUD for the first time today. Had to google it.

            I didn´t take anything personally, I even believe that it wasn´t meant for me explicitly, but for all the sceptics out there. Most of the readers of clean technica are probably not sceptics (anymore).
            And I´m thanking you for all the information you provide under countless articles. You seem to be collecting information about renewable energies etc. for quite a while whereas I only recently started to acticely research on those subjects.

            Thanks! Can´t wait to finish university to start building the future. 🙂

          • Offgridman

            From our conversation here there’s no way to tell that English isn’t native for you, so you are doing fine.
            As for my long term interest in renewable energy, yes that is very true, I have been waiting since the administration of President Carter here in the US for everyone else to realize not just the necessity but just how much common sense there is to getting our energy sources coming primarily from them. Although my disconnect from the utility company is relatively short being just eight years ago compared to others posting here.
            As for fud, I haven’t looked it up, but just associate it with the dissemination or continuing of disinformation whether intentionally or not.
            Thanks for the conversation today, I look forward to hearing about your progress again in the future.

          • I just looked it up too: “fear, uncertainty and doubt, usually evoked intentionally in order to put a competitor at a disadvantage.”

          • Offgridman

            Well my understanding isn’t exact but not to far off.
            Thanks for taking the time Zach.

          • Bob_Wallace

            According to Wiki the Toyota plant (NUMMI) built an average of 6000 vehicles a week. 312,000 per year.

          • Offgridman

            But that was with an older style more labor intensive assembly line. The video that Philip W and I were discussing goes into how the redesign of the processes and use of robotics will allow much higher production numbers.

          • Bob_Wallace

            My ISP budget doesn’t allow for 47 minute videos.

            Any indication of how many Teslas the NUMMI plant might produce?

          • Offgridman

            And I am in the middle of canning up my homemade tomato sauce while intermittently carrying on the conversation, that’s why I didn’t find the link for him. 🙂
            I’ll try and get a chance to watch again this evening after the boys are in bed and see if I can figure it out for you. If memory is right they were talking about multiple millions of vehicles per year eventually, but that wasn’t taking into consideration outsourcing the battery assembly to the gigafactory..
            Have a great day and good luck with your projects.

          • Philip W

            That Video is from 2012 when they started producing the Model S, so they were only planning to produce about 20k vehicles for 2013 if all goes well. There was no number for maximum capacity, but as Offgridman already stated newer processes, automation and easier construction of EVs should allow a much higher number than those 6k per week eventually.

            edit: Elon said that he wanted to produce 500k vehicles per year as fast as possible. But i don´t know if Fremont can do that on it´s own.

          • JonathanMaddox

            Time to get a new ISP.

          • Bob_Wallace

            Two options. What I’ve got which is 10 gig up/down for $55 and $10 for each additional 5 gigs or Hughes satellite which totally sucks.

            I guess I could spend a half a million or more and drag a cable/fiber.

          • JonathanMaddox

            Whoah, okay. I think I knew you were off-grid (is that right?) but I didn’t know you were quite that remote.

          • Bob_Wallace

            The grid stops 3.5 miles ($300,000+) away. Cable stops, I’m guessing 12-15 miles away.

            I’m feeling really lucky because a couple years ago we got a remote wifi connection and got off really a bad satellite ISP.

            Now I’ve got a connection that is almost always up. (Down once for a few minutes, IIRC.) And it’s fast, with no up link delays. But limited bandwidth. Watch no movies….

          • CMCNestT .

            That is what they built not capacity. Capacity was 500k and Tesla says they could build 500k cars at Fremont as well.

          • jeffhre

            Yes, 20% with the initiation of Model S production. The last I read though, was that they are up to nearly 50% of the space available on the Fremont floor.

          • Offgridman

            I haven’t done any research recently on how much of the Fremont factory is being used so fifty percent right now seems perfectly valid.
            Some things are going to change how that space is used though. First off the battery pack assembly is going to be done at the gigafactory when it is finished instead of Fremont. Another is that for initial production of parts for the Model S it was being done in house, Tesla has stated that with higher production numbers of vehicles it will be able to outsource those parts because order numbers will be high enough to get better prices done at the quality they require. Lastly, Tesla has taken options on several of the properties and empty plants around the Fremont site for possible future use.
            So I am pretty sure that Musk is doing whatever is necessary to see that production is able to keep up with demand of the Models S&X, and Tesla3 as needed.

          • Bob_Wallace

            Don’t forget, Tesla recently acquired a 431,000-square-foot (40,000 square meters) industrial facility in Lathrop, California.

            It’s not clear what they intend to build there, but it’s a lot more space to add into the mix.

          • Offgridman

            Your right, I did forget to include that in the options that Tesla has made for itself. And it just helps to add to my point that Musk is a good enough manager to be sure they won’t have any problems ramping up production to equal demand

          • Johnny Le

            That’s because they’re using it for office space as well. They are in the process of moving many business functions out. So I think they will ramp it up even more soon.

          • Eric

            All that extra space is important, but there’s all sorts of specialized equipment involved in vehicle production that you can’t get via Amazon Prime. I’m a reservation holder but I’d be surprised if they build more than a few hundred per month for the first few months. I’m still figuring I won’t see mine for anywhere from 4-8 months from the time delivery starts, and my number is in the low thousands.

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