It is that time of year again, when each and every market analysis company comes out of the woodwork to let us know just how the state of the coming year is to be, and the solar industry is not to be left out.
IHS and Mercom Capital released their 2014 predictions earlier this week, and Thursday saw NPD Solarbuzz do the same, predicting that the Asia-Pacific region will account for half of global solar PV demand in 2014. According to findings from the latest NPD Solarbuzz Asia Pacific PV Markets Quarterly report, not only will the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region make up approximately 50% of all new solar PV demand next year, but 95% of that figure will come from just five coutnries: China, Japan, India, Australia, and Thailand.
“APAC will dominate both manufacturing supply and end-market demand in 2014, with more than 80% of module production also coming from the region,” according to Steven Han, analyst at NPD Solarbuzz. “This milestone marks the final chapter in the transition from historic European domination to a new PV industry, where supply and demand from APAC will determine the basis of the 50 GW global PV industry going into 2015.”
In total, APAC countries are expected to install over 23 GW of solar PV in 2014, which would — if achieved — set a new record for installed solar PV in any region, a record that would equal more than the entire global PV industry in 2010, and even greater than the 19.2 GW installed in Europe in 2011, a high point in the solar industry when Germany and Italy were global leaders.
China and Japan demand will make up more than 85% of APAC installations next year, according to NPD Solarbuzz, thanks to aggressive plans by the Chinese government to install 12 GW in 2014. IHS and Mercom Capital both believe that China will fail to meet their goal, however NPD have refrained from speculating one way or the other, instead focusing on the Japanese market, predicting that — in the wake of 230% annual growth in 2013 — the 2014 Japanese solar PV pipeline will soar over 20 GW.
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