China’s Installed PV To Reach 10 GW By End Of Year
Chinese state news has announced that the country’s on-grid solar power capacity will reach 10 GW by the end of 2013, a 200% increase from a year ago, based on figures forecast by the National Energy Administration.
The total energy generation capacity of the Chinese power grid is expected to reach 1,235 GW by the end of this year, with solar’s 10 GW helping to reduce the thermal energy share to 69.9% — down from 2012’s 71.5%, despite overall growth. Hydro power is expected to make up 25.5%, on-grid wind power 6.1%, and nuclear power 1.2%.
The state news agency Xinhua noted that, “China has taken a number of measures, including increasing investment in clean energy to boost the share of non-fossil fuels in its power structure.”
NPD Solarbuzz projected in August of this year that China would top PV deployment in 2013, predicting that the combined demand from China and Japan was expected to reach 9 GW in the second half of 2013.
“The record level of PV shipments to China and Japan coincides with corporate margins returning to positive territory and the final shakeout phase of uncompetitive manufacturers nearing completion,” said Finlay Colville, vice president, NPD Solarbuzz.
“Having entered 2013 with a highly cautious outlook, tier-one suppliers are poised to exit the year with restored confidence, ahead of optimistic shipment and margin guidance for 2014.”
In July of this year, China also stated they intended to to add 10 GW of solar power a year over the next three years, boosting the country’s solar capacity up to at least 35 GW by 2015. China also recently announced that it intended to stretch its distributed-solar capacity target to 20 GW by the same time. In early 2011, China’s 2015 solar PV capacity target was just 5 GW.
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Can someone please explain the math in the second paragraph. How is 10GW 69.9% of 1,235 GW. I think something has gone missing.
About to write pretty much the same comment … a ‘wtf’ read moment. Believe, trying to read through, that this is a 69.9% year-to-year growth rate. There is a missing sentence/explanation here.
It is in fact the share of thermal power capacity that is expected to drop to 69.9% of total by the end of the year.
You make a small but important change in interpreting the government plan. It says (Google translate):
“2013-2015, average annual new PV installed capacity of about 10 million kilowatts by 2015, the total installed capacity of 35 million kilowatts or more.”
That does not imply the plateau you suggest with “to add 10 GW of solar power a year over the next three years”. If China ended 2012 with 3 GW, and instals 7 GW this year, then the target is more plausibly reached along a growth path of 10 GW in 2014 and 15 GW in 2015. They have no reason to slow down.
Hey, guys. I’m just seeing this article and made the required edits. Also worth noting (and added in) is that China’s 2015 solar PV target was 5 GW back in early 2011, change to 10 GW in mid 2011, then change to 20 GW, then change to 35 GW. Pretty amazing.
The Chinese with all their pollution are starting to see the value of renewables. They know that fossil fuels are the wrong horse to be dependent on. Watch them to construct some of the most amazing renewable projects over the next decade….