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Solar PV Production Costs To Drop In 2014

The average cost for tier 1 solar photovoltaic manufacturers is expected to fall 6% during 2014, continuing the downward trend set in place since 2008, bringing the overall cost to a record low of $0.20 per watt, according to the latest research from NPD Solarbuzz published in their Polysilicon and Wafer Supply Chain Quarterly report.

131118_crystalline_silicon_wafer_manufacturing_cost_forecast

“Wafer costs are only a third of what they were five years ago, and even though the rapid pace of cost reduction is starting to decline, the severe oversupply and extremely low selling prices are forcing polysilicon and wafer makers to continue to find ways to lower costs to previously assumed impossible levels,” said Charles Annis, vice president at NPD Solarbuzz.

There are two sides to the manufacturing of solar photovoltaic panels are polysilicon and wafers. According to NPD, polysilicon manufacturers are relocating capacity to areas with low electricity prices, building new fluidized bed reactor (FBR) plants or converting Siemens capacity to FBR, reducing power consumption, increasing plant productivity, as well as building in-house power plants.

“At the same time, wafer makers are also reducing costs by increasing the multicrystalline ingot size from Gen 4/5 to Gen 6/7, reducing slurry consumption and increasing recycling, adopting diamond wire sawing for monocrystalline applications, and benefiting from rising conversion efficiencies as crystallization quality continues to improve,” explained Annis.

While manufacturing prices are expected to drop, NPD believe that “along with firm pricing and rapidly growing shipments” the increased productivity that is allowing such prices “is expected to create a substantially more optimistic opportunity for best-of-class polysilicon and wafer makers in 2014.” Subsequently, these prices make NPD Solarbuzz’s recent PV market demand forecast of between 45 GW and 50 GW for 2014 should support improving the profitability for leading polysilicon and wafer manufacturers.

 
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