GTM Research have released their ‘Global PV Pricing Outlook 2014’, and thanks to the stabilisation of the PV supply chain during 2013, they expect global PV prices to increase 9% during the next year.
The report notes that the PV supply chain began to stabilise “due in part to robust demand growth, capacity retirements and mothballing by uncompetitive firms, trade conflicts, and a general focus by suppliers on margins over sales growth.”
‘PV Pricing Outlook 2014: Value Chain Trends, Global Drivers and Regional Dynamics’ analyses pricing both by geographical regions as well as materials, and foresees a 9% cost increase over the entire upstream PV chain, including “polysilicon, wafers, cells and modules, adjusted for volume” (PV-Tech).
Japan and China are set to continue growing the end-market, and prices in the region will firm up through at least the first half of 2014.
“Looking into 2015 and beyond, module pricing will resume its long downward trajectory, eventually hitting $.50/W for tier-1 Chinese modules in the base forecast.”
Access to the report is hidden behind a somewhat significant price barrier ($1,995 at a minimum) so my information is similarly limited to that provided by the short summary provided by GTM Research and work done by PV-Tech. Nevertheless, the 2013 statistics continue to role in and showcase an industry enjoying the benefits of growth and maturity, stablising a previously rocky terrain and allowing powerhouse industrial nations like China to start making a massive impact on the global pricing. Add to China the efforts of Japan and the US, and “blended polysilicon prices expected to rise by up to 25% during the year, wafer prices to rise by 11% and cell prices by 5%” (PV-Tech).
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