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Published on November 19th, 2013 | by Joshua S Hill


GTM Predict Global PV Prices To Rise During 2014

November 19th, 2013 by  

GTM Research have released their ‘Global PV Pricing Outlook 2014’, and thanks to the stabilisation of the PV supply chain during 2013, they expect global PV prices to increase 9% during the next year.

The report notes that the PV supply chain began to stabilise “due in part to robust demand growth, capacity retirements and mothballing by uncompetitive firms, trade conflicts, and a general focus by suppliers on margins over sales growth.”

‘PV Pricing Outlook 2014: Value Chain Trends, Global Drivers and Regional Dynamics’ analyses pricing both by geographical regions as well as materials, and foresees a 9% cost increase over the entire upstream PV chain, including “polysilicon, wafers, cells and modules, adjusted for volume” (PV-Tech).

Japan and China are set to continue growing the end-market, and prices in the region will firm up through at least the first half of 2014.


“Looking into 2015 and beyond, module pricing will resume its long downward trajectory, eventually hitting $.50/W for tier-1 Chinese modules in the base forecast.”

Access to the report is hidden behind a somewhat significant price barrier ($1,995 at a minimum) so my information is similarly limited to that provided by the short summary provided by GTM Research and work done by PV-Tech. Nevertheless, the 2013 statistics continue to role in and showcase an industry enjoying the benefits of growth and maturity, stablising a previously rocky terrain and allowing powerhouse industrial nations like China to start making a massive impact on the global pricing. Add to China the efforts of Japan and the US, and “blended polysilicon prices expected to rise by up to 25% during the year, wafer prices to rise by 11% and cell prices by 5%” (PV-Tech).

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  • Mike

    There is a better chart here with both a scale and data points –

    • Bob_Wallace

      Thanks. Let’s bring it over.

      • Bob_Wallace

        Kind of helps explain why China is installing utility scale solar for $1/watt while it’s still around $2/watt in the US.

        But not why Europe is installing for ~ $1.50/watt.

  • JamesWimberley

    A chart without a scale is obfuscation by GTM. Still, it’s curious how much variation they see in the price of basically the same made-in-China modules.

    • Bob_Wallace

      Looks like the recent shakeout took out a lot of manufacturing. The more efficient survivors haven’t ramped up fast enough to absorb increasing demands. As manufacturing capacity is added this price blip will get ironed out.

      And it looks like costs are going to get cut on the supply side for panel manufacturers.

      “Average costs for vertically integrated tier 1 makers are now forecast to fall yet another 6 percent in 2014 to a record low of $0.20 per watt (W), according to the NPD Solarbuzz Polysilicon and Wafer Supply Chain Quarterly report. Since 2008, solar PV wafer manufacturing costs (the combined costs of polysilicon and wafer processing) have declined more than 16 percent per year.”

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