A few hours ago, I shared the results of our poll regarding which EV will be first to break into the top 10 of global auto sales. It was a fun poll, and it was very interesting to see the results. Of course, the year an EV first breaks into the top 10 would provide a big hint as to whether that EV would indeed be one of the models on the list or an unknown model not yet unveiled. If an EV breaks into the top 10 in 2015, it could very well be the Nissan Leaf, Chevy Spark EV, Toyota Prius PHEV, Tesla Model S, or something else currently on the market. If an EV breaks into the top 10 in 2018, it’s less likely such models would still be around*, but the likelihood of the Tesla Model “C” being the first to break into the top 10 certainly picks up in likelihood. The year an EV breaks into the top 10 of global auto sales is, of course, interesting beyond its relation to which EV claims that record first. It’s also a sort of indicator of when EVs “go mainstream” and how quickly we deal with global warming and the melting of the friggin’ North Pole!
So, it was nice to see a reader and early voter in the above poll make the wonderful suggestion to do a poll on the year this all goes down. I’m dying to see what year rises to the top in this poll, and how the spread looks, so let’s dive into it:
*Naturally, some models do run for many years (e.g., the Toyota Prius, Toyota Camry, Ford Focus, etc.). So, there is a chance a new version of the Leaf, Chevy Spark EV, or other current EV could still be created each year up through 2017, 2020, 2023, or even later.
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