A new study from Navigant Research (formerly known as Pike Research) concludes that the worldwide sales of electric drive motors will grow from $965 million in 2013 to more than $2.8 billion by 2020. The conclusion comes from the growing electric vehicle market and the use of electric motors in 100% electric vehicles and hybrid electric vehicles.
The senior research analyst for Navigant Research, David Alexander said, “While sales of battery electric vehicles are increasing, the growth is slow and steady rather than exponential. That will lead to a similar growth curve in the electric vehicle motor market, which is expected to expand at a compound annual growth rate of 16.6 percent over the next 7 years.”
However, the projection that growth will remain linear is quite an assumption, and one that many of our readers wouldn’t agree is wise. As we have seen time and time again, once a technology hits a certain breakthrough point, the growth skyrockets. To many, it seems that electric cars are on the verge of that. A recent article on The Conversation shared by RenewEconomy highlights the potential with three graphs. This first one shows the slow and then booming growth of various technologies:
This second graph shows the theoretical S-curve graph behind such growth:
And this third one shows recent electric vehicle growth (December 2010 to November 2012) compared to early hybrid electric vehicle growth (December 1999 to November 2001):
What do you think? Are electric car and electric drive motor growth about to take off?
Electric Drive Motor Forecast from Navigant Research
Getting back to the Navigant Research report, titled “Electric Vehicle Drive Motors,” a complete breakdown was made on all the aspects associated with electric drive motors. The report has profiles of leading motor manufactures, OEM, and other industry participants.
Revenue from motors were broken down by motor power ratings through 2020 and also included hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery electric vehicle model introductions by region. Even various electric motor technologies were examined with the goal of determining which would be the most suitable for electric drives.
It’s no secret that EVs are increasing numerous sales in supportive markets, such as batteries and electric motors markets, but this is one interesting report on how the very important electric drive market breaks down by manufacturer, region, and type. Also, the fact that it included AC induction, DC motors, Permanent Magnet AC, Switched Reluctance, and Axial Flux Motors in the report makes it quite interesting. You can sign up for free to view the report on the Navigant Research website.
But the big question remains: will these electric vehicle markets see linear or exponential growth in the coming years?