Has Europe Attained “Peak-Car” Status?
Europe appears to be exhibiting a phenomenon dubbed as “car-peak” by Morgan Stanley researchers. This phenomenon is the decline of car usage, which can also cause a decline in car demand.
There are multiple possible causes for such decline, including culture changes, high gasoline prices, economic hardship, increased environmental awareness, population decline, and severe traffic congestion.
As for causes that may apply specifically to Europe:
There has been population decline in Europe, high gasoline prices, increased environmental awareness, and in certain areas — such as London — severe traffic congestion.
Environmental awareness has increased in many parts of Europe, including Germany, the United Kingdom, Sweden, and other countries.
Increased environmental awareness does encourage some people to drive less, and travel by foot, bicycle, or public transit more often.
In 2007, 16 million cars were registered in the European Union, however, that many registrations is unlikely to happen again, and may instead drop down to 11 million registrations, which is equivalent to that of 1993 before the number of registrations stabilizes.
Source: Wall Street Journal
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In the US we’re seeing a decline in driving among young adults.
Overall miles driven has been roughly flat for the last nine years. It might have peaked around 2006/7. And that’s total miles driven, not adjusted for a growing population.
Yeah, I don’t think those are going to increase much in the future. Think the trend is shifting. But we’ll see. Of course, diff story in developing countries…