LED bulb cost is projected to drop by half by 2020. Technological innovation is expected to shift the surrounding thermal management, drivers, and optics as the price of the main LED package falls, says Lux Research.
Innovation in thermal management, drivers, and optics is helping to lower prices, halving them to $11.06 in 2020, according to Lux Research.
“Costs of the central LED package will fall by more than 70% to $2.14 in the next decade, constituting 19% of the bulb costs in 2020. However, to drive overall costs lower – and ensure adoption in a market still dominated by incandescent and CFLs (compact fluorescent lamps) – other system costs need to keep pace.”
The analysts studied the key LED cost stack components of a 60W incandescent equivalent LED bulb as well as the technologies that may accelerate cost and lead to LED bulbs’ market potential. Among their findings:
“Thermal management will yield modest cost gains. Thermal management is the biggest target for cost reduction past the package. Active thermal management technologies such Nuventix’s SynJet will lead to cost savings over aluminum-based solutions, but only from 2017.
“Dimmable drivers lead to energy savings. Dimmable drivers are priced at a premium to non-dimmable ones because they enable precise control of the light output and lead to energy savings. Innovation in this area will bring about a 1% cost saving in 2020, boosting the performance of the LEDs overall.”
LEDs look like the future of lighting. These innovations and cost improvements will just speed up the transition to that future.