Comments on: Deutsche Says Solar PV Market Could Reach 50 GW In 2014

By: Bob_Wallace

Bob_Wallace — Wed, 30 Oct 2013 05:44:00 +0000

Solar is growing fast but it’s barely pulling off the bottom in the greater picture.

We’ve got quite a way to go to catch up with Germany and their 25% from wind and solar.

eta: How I ended up with four copies of the graph only the wizards at Disqus know.

By: mds

mds — Wed, 30 Oct 2013 05:30:00 +0000

Per year, thanks Bob. I was doing a sanity check based on amount installed. Very rough since I don’t have a curve to get area under. I’m in the ball park of these numbers though and I see where you’re getting the data from. Interesting. Coal has been losing ground. Wind growing fast. Solar very fast. Thanks again. mike

By: Bob_Wallace

Bob_Wallace — Tue, 29 Oct 2013 04:32:00 +0000

(Second try)

US produced electricity from thermal and PV solar increased:

2009 – 2010 36%
2010 – 2011 50%
2011 – 2012 139%
2012 – 2013 70% (est. based on first six months)

Up about 500% from 2009 to 2013. 1,212 MWh to 7,353 MWh.

By: doug card

doug card — Tue, 29 Oct 2013 04:00:00 +0000

80% plus in the USA for the last 3 years

By: Bmozza

Bmozza — Mon, 28 Oct 2013 06:20:00 +0000

At 100GW my calculations show that based on Australian power prices (high at about 25 cents kWh) that’s about 40 billion $$ saved per year across the world on power…

By: Bob_Wallace

Bob_Wallace — Mon, 28 Oct 2013 01:27:00 +0000

Yes. Just happens to plot as a fairly straight line from 2011 to 2013.

2011 1,818
2012 4,342
2013 7,353
—
Your next question about thousands of MWh…

The EIA page states numbers are in million kWh. 1 million kWh = 1,000 MWh, does it not? I don’t work much in these large numbers. Mistakes are likely.

http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/#electricity

7.2a

By: mds

mds — Sun, 27 Oct 2013 22:14:00 +0000

Wait, thousands of MWh per year?

By: mds

mds — Sun, 27 Oct 2013 21:54:00 +0000

Nice! Better with data points shown more clearly. Is 2012 in there?

By: mds

mds — Sun, 27 Oct 2013 21:53:00 +0000

Good comments, but I think the over-capacity happened because they actually got too far out ahead of 40-50% growth. That and a change in economics from primarily subsidy driven to primarily pure market driven. (see longer comment below)

By: mds

mds — Sun, 27 Oct 2013 21:07:00 +0000

I do not think their number for 2011 is correct. Here is a different number:
http://www.pv-tech.org/news/ihs_pv_installs_reached_32gw_in_2012_and_35gw_forecasted_for_2013 – January 2013
“IHS: PV installs reached 32GW in 2012 and 35GW forecasted for 2013”
“Global PV installations hit 32GW in 2012, up from 28GW
in 2011, according to the latest figures from market research firm, IHS. Growth is also expected in 2013 but restricted to only a 3GW rise to 35GW.”

28 GW in 2011 sounds more reasonable to me.

The PV industry really had to take new medicine in starting in 2011 when they had 50 GW production capability but demand was little more than half that.

The PV production slow down over the last few years has occurred for two reasons:
1. Over production cycle, as is typical in all disruptive markets.
2. Reduction in global subsidies.
The former may have been just as important as the later and we all know a shake-out resulted.

A simple 48% growth prediction:
http://thefraserdomain.typepad.com/energy/2007/12/fyi-solar-cell.html PV production up 50% in 2007 – Dec 2007
“Solar Cell Production Jumps 50 Percent in 2007” “jumped to 3,800 megawatts worldwide in 2007”
“Growing by an impressive average of 48 percent each
year since 2002” “world’s fastest-growing energy source”
Good plot of PV production growth from 1975 to 2007. mds
2007 = 3.8 GW
2008 @ 48% per year = 3.8 GW x 1.48 = 5.6 GW predicted
– Actual 6 GW?
2009 @ 48% per year = 3.8 GW x 2.19 = 8.3 GW predicted
– Actual 7.2 or 7.3 GW
2010 @ 48% per year = 3.8 GW x 3.2 = 12.3 GW predicted
– Actual 26 or 27 GW
2011 @ 48% per year = 3.8 GW x 4.8 = 18.2 GW predicted
– Actual 28 GW
2012 @ 48% per year = 3.8 GW x 7.1 = 27.0 GW predicted
– Actual 32 GW
2013 @ 48% per year = 3.8 GW x 10.5 = 39.9 GW predicted
– CURRENT PREDICTIONS in this article 45-55 GW

Amazing as it may seem, we are still above this 48% per year growth curve. Please fasten your seat belts:
2014 @ 48% per year = 3.8 GW x 15.6 = 59.1 GW predicted
2015@ 48% per year = 3.8 GW x 23.0 = 87.5 GW predicted
2016 @ 48% per year = 3.8 GW x 34.1 = 129.5 GW predicted
2017 @ 48% per year = 3.8 GW x 50.4 = 191.6 GW predicted
2018 @ 48% per year = 3.8 GW x 74.6 = 283.6 GW predicted
2019 @ 48% per year = 3.8 GW x 110.4 = 419.7 GW predicted
2020 @ 48% per year = 3.8 GW x 163.5 = 621.1 GW predicted
2021 @ 48% per year = 3.8 GW x 241.9 = 919.2 GW predicted
Would anyone like to go on record as saying this is not going to happen? Nay-sayers, it should be easy for you, I double-dare you

By: Bob_Wallace

Bob_Wallace — Sun, 27 Oct 2013 20:33:00 +0000

Not worldwide data, only US. But I was playing around with generation (not installed capacity) numbers and thought I’d share.

The 2013 data point is an estimate made by doubling generation for the first six months. The actual point should be somewhat higher, reflecting capacity which is installed during the year.

It looks like we may hit 0.2% this year, up from 0.11% in 2012.

Wind is going to be close to 5%, up from 3.5%. Throw in hydro and other renewable generation at it looks like 14% for 2013.

By: Shiggity

Shiggity — Sun, 27 Oct 2013 20:10:00 +0000

If you look back all the way to the 1970s, solar PV has been doubling in capacity every 2.5 years. The curve is incredibly smooth. It’s just that solar PV hasn’t been at a level that was globally relevant until very recently. It was still doubling but no one was writing about it or was noticing it.

At end of year 2012 worldwide capacity was ~100GW. That means that we should be hitting 200GW half way through 2015. That is exactly what these predictions are saying.

By: JamesWimberley

JamesWimberley — Sun, 27 Oct 2013 02:07:00 +0000

The new installations for the last bumpy four years, according to the EPIA, were:
2009 7,376 Mw + 10.0%
2010 26,065 + 253.4%
2011 21,391 – 17.9% (collapse in Spain with austerity)
2012 31,095 + 45.4%
let’s add:
2013 35,000 E +12.6% (managed cutback in Germany)
So basically you had a huge spike in 2010, than a pause, normal growth in 2012, and another pause this year. The predictions are for normal growth next year. Excellent news.
The market is now much more balanced and diverse geographically, so a policy shock in one country will affect the totals less. And since subsidies are now lower or nonexistent, the general sensitivity to policy is less too.

By: Omega Centauri

Omega Centauri — Sat, 26 Oct 2013 23:40:00 +0000

No. The past few years have been more like 20%. Getting back to doubling in two years (41%) is what may be happening. The overcapacity happened because manufacturing capacity was planned/built under the expectation 40-50% gowth would continue.

By: dcard88

dcard88 — Sat, 26 Oct 2013 23:29:00 +0000

slow growth? 50% per year?

By: Omega Centauri

Omega Centauri — Sat, 26 Oct 2013 20:37:00 +0000

So rather than the slow growth rates of the past 3-4years a dropoff, they were a return to trend, which is now going to continue? Whatever it is, getting back to fast growth is a bug deal.

By: JamesWimberley

JamesWimberley — Sat, 26 Oct 2013 18:46:00 +0000

Deutsche are not out of line with other estimates. NPD Solarbuzz give 45-55GW; IHS are more pessimistic at 41 GW. These estimates come ultimately from the manufacturers; after the nightmare of 2012, they are likely to be cautious. But 50GW is exactly on the exponential growth curve fitted from 2000 – the years 2010-2012 were above trend.
It will be important how the first-tier manufacturers ramp up output. The cautious route is to buy equipment from bankrupt lower-tier firms and make do.The radical route is to build new gigawatt fabs, which would drive down costs much faster. Their bankers will probably force them to do the former until they have no choice but to go for new build.