For the last 2 years or so the California Energy Commission (CEC – we’ve got more acronyms than most) that sets utility rate policy has studied and begun implementing an energy storage program that treats utilities and consumers alike on a level playing field. The energy storage program will be subsidizing many millions of dollars for technology agnostic storage platforms integrated at all levels of distribution. The purpose of the program is again to collect sufficient data to then determine policy, and is set to run for more than the next 5 years. It’s not surprising that this methodic determination of government policy and regulation has been so effective in both lowering rates to consumers while preserving sufficient profit incentive for utilities.

As to the customer load served by the three big IOUs in our state, Southern California Edison (SCE) has Los Angeles at the center of its service area and recently noted that LA residences currently hold about 10% of the plug-in electric vehicles (both pure electric and hybrid) that have been sold thus far in the US.

A recent ad-hoc survey by an airless tire manufacturer indicated that over 50% of automotive consumers expect that 20 years from now virtually all vehicles sold will be plug-ins; pure EVs and hybrids.

That said, SCE reports that at the current penetration level there has been very little that had to be done to accommodate the additional load (one PEV = approx. 4X a typical household energy load) outside of routine service upgrades, and LA is definitely 2 car+ garage country. Given the rate of EV adoption there (highest in the nation), that would mean an increase in total electrical load by about 8X over the next 15 to 20 years, with only a portion of that power produced by rooftop PV. There is simply not enough rooftop area for the vast majority of consumers to produce the amount of solar PV power (even at 100% conversion efficiency) necessary to support the coming total household electrical load that displaces petroleum for transportation.

So what are the electric utilities complaining about?

The next 20 years are going to see an unprecedented growth in demand that cannot be met by solar PV in urban or even suburban areas. There will be plenty of need for a modernized utility grid as well as major new generation capacity (moving towards renewable penetration in excess of 50%) and bulk energy storage units outside of suburban areas to support that increase in load. All utilities the world over should be preparing for that eventuality rather than the narrow focus they’re having on short term market disruptions as they occur. The massive technology overhaul will transform those utilities’ business model, but also still call for the essential services that they can provide. As the old adage goes: Lead, Follow, or Get Out of the Way!

It’s the coal, then petroleum, followed by natural gas companies that should be concerned about consumption through burning their product disappearing over the next 20 years! If they were smart (and some of them are), the carbon feedstock companies would refocus their product sales to markets that will grow as this transformation occurs.

It is easier to store water (at a high place) than electricity. So for farmers using solar power for irrigation it would probably more efficient to pump up water to an above-ground reservoir when it is sunny, and let gravity bring the water to the plants when needed, than to use batteries.