Comments on: Electricity Utilities Could Lose Half Their Market To Solar And Storage

By: Bob_Wallace

Bob_Wallace — Wed, 16 Oct 2013 18:40:00 +0000

And thinking a bit more about how much roof area would be required to charge an EV…

First solar panel that popped up was a Sharp 250. 250 watt in a 64.6″ x 39.1″ package. 19.2 watts per square feet.

To charge the average EV one needs 10.7kWh.

In an area like San Diego with 5.5 avg solar hours per day that would take a 1.9 kW array. Upsize it 20% to more than compensate for inverter and charger inefficiency and it’s 2.3 kW, 2,330 watts.

At 19.2 watts per square feet it would take 121.7 square feet of roof space to generate the electricity to charge an EV. About the size of bedroom.

In the less sunny Northeast with 4.2 average solar hours per day it would take a 3,050 watt array and 160 square feet of roof area.

—

Two EVs and household power in the SW = ~11.5k array and 600 square feet.

Two EVs and household power in the NE = ~15k array and 780 square feet.

By: Bob_Wallace

Bob_Wallace — Wed, 16 Oct 2013 17:59:00 +0000

Are there cheap hydrogen generators or is this wish-thinking?

By: Bob_Wallace

Bob_Wallace — Wed, 16 Oct 2013 17:58:00 +0000

(one PEV = approx. 4X a typical household load) and we’re definitely in 2 car garage country

Average annual miles per US driver = 13,000.

Average miles driven per day = 35.6.
Average electricity usage per EV mile = 0.3 kWh.
Electricity required for single day’s driving = 10.7 kWh.
Average residential daily electricity usage = 30.9 kWh.

Two average EVs would use 30% less electricity than an average residence, not 800% more.

By: Tony P.

Tony P. — Wed, 16 Oct 2013 17:40:00 +0000

Here in sunny Southern California where the California Solar Initiative has been actively promoting and subsidizing Solar PV for over 20 years, we’re dealing with many of the same issues as elsewhere, but more proactively. There is (and has been for some time) a program to support Self-Generation that is technology agnostic. For the last 2 years or so the California Electrical Commission (CEC – we’ve got more acronyms than most) has studied and begun implementing an energy storage program that treats utilities and consumers alike on a level playing field. The energy storage program will be subsidizing $MM for technology agnostic storage platforms integrated at all levels of distribution in order to collect sufficient data to then determine policy, and is set to run for more than 5 years. It’s not surprising that this methodic determination of government policy and regulation has been so effective.
As to the customer load served by the three big IOUs (Investor Owned Utilities) in our state, Southern California Edison (SCE) has Los Angeles at the center of its service area and recently noted that LA residences currently hold 10% of the plug-in vehicles (both pure electric and hybrid) that have been sold in the US.
That said, SCE reports that at the current penetration level there was very little that had to be done to accomodate the additional load (one PEV = approx. 4X a typical household load) and we’re definitely in 2 car garage country. Given the rate of EV adoption here (highest in the nation), that would mean an increase in total electrical load by about 8X over the next 15 to 20 years. There is simply not enough rooftop area for consumers to produce the solar PV (even at 100% conversion efficiency) necessary to support the coming total household load.
So what are the electrical utilities complaining about? The next 20 years are going to see an unprecidented growth in demand that cannot be met by solar PV in an urban or even suburban area. There will be plenty of need for a grid as well as major generation (hopefully moving towards renewable) and bulk energy storage units outside of (sub)urban areas to support that increase in load.
The situation is slightly different in Australia due to the much lower population density (about 10% of the US, but in the same geographic area), but with about 75% of your population still residing in major cities. You have the same passion for the environment that California does and the rest of the world will be following suit.
BTW, in 2003 I bicycled self-contained (Eco-travel) from Cairns to Brisbane to Sydney to Melbourne (with many diversions up and down the Great Dividing Range) and along the Great Ocean Road, so I’m fairly familiar with where and how the majority of Australia’s population lives and those urban areas along with the various size townships in between. And I loved the many different roadsigns in the wide open spaces for keeping drivers alert, particularly “Don’t Sleep and Drive”.

By: John Bailo

John Bailo — Thu, 10 Oct 2013 16:13:00 +0000

Cheap solar hydrogen generators would really impact the storage side of the equation. In fact, storage impacts not only the traditional grid, but solar itself.

I think you’d still want a grid for redundancy though (say a storm blows off your panels). In that case, a hydrogen fuel cell becomes a standard, the solar makes the hydrogen and you’re interconnected by a minigrid of pipes to load level. That means you can get by with maybe less solar panels per roof, or else, just have a “neighborhood” energy generator to serve a few blocks or a town.

By: A Real Libertarian

A Real Libertarian — Thu, 10 Oct 2013 06:13:00 +0000

Imprisonment? Multimillion dollar fines? It’s they do in Spain.

Oh, almost forgot…
We must protect the free market from competition! To rebel against the aristocracy is commie heresy!

By: Ronald Brakels

Ronald Brakels — Thu, 10 Oct 2013 06:01:00 +0000

They still can’t cope with the fact that rooftop solar exists and their response to that was to see that feed-in tariffs were cut so much it makes sense for people to install energy storage. I’m wondering what sort of self harm they’ll do in response to home energy storage.

By: Bob_Wallace

Bob_Wallace — Thu, 10 Oct 2013 04:36:00 +0000

I should be able to hear the whaling and rending of garments from the coal industry all the way up here….

By: Ronald Brakels

Ronald Brakels — Thu, 10 Oct 2013 04:20:00 +0000

Today I asked a man how much for a hybrid solar inverter/battery with 6 kilowatt-hours of lithium-ion storage. He told me he’d do me for $3,500. Assuming a ten year life span and one cycle a day and a 5% discount rate that comes to 20.8 cents a kilowatt-hour. A money saver for many grid connected Australians with solar. And since this includes an inverter which might cost say $500 the cost of storage is actually about 17.8 cents which means that someone with the now common 8 cents a kilowatt-hour feed-in tariff can turn a profit with this system. And costs will be coming down further. Looking at electric car battery packs we know they can do better. Home energy storage in Australia is going to start taking off now and gain a lot of momentum over the next few years.

By: Andy Bochman

Andy Bochman — Wed, 09 Oct 2013 00:36:00 +0000

Loved the article Giles – many thanks. I tend to look at everything from a cyber and energy security point of view, and am exploring the cyber security ramifications, both pro and con, of increasingly decentralized power gen. This piece shows the clear fork in the road and how folks of good intent are still choosing opposite paths. Will be interesting – and maybe a little fun – to watch how this plays out. Andy in Boston.

By: Bob_Wallace

Bob_Wallace — Tue, 08 Oct 2013 22:21:00 +0000

I understand.

By: Ronald Brakels

Ronald Brakels — Tue, 08 Oct 2013 22:13:00 +0000

I’m not sure we’re willing to make that sacrifice.

By: Bob_Wallace

Bob_Wallace — Tue, 08 Oct 2013 21:58:00 +0000

“Here in Adelaide there’s almost no industry, it’s just full of people servicing each other all day long.”

Back on the farm we used to talk about the bull servicing the cows. Perhaps if you restricted servicing to the nighttime hours you could make some progress….

By: Ronald Brakels

Ronald Brakels — Tue, 08 Oct 2013 21:52:00 +0000

I’m afraid I don’t have any info at the moment. I once saw the price of solar inverters plus storage in Europe but I neglected to take note of the website. And we have a problem in Australia. Other countries that we’d normally expect to do all the work for us such as Germany and Japan have decent solar feed-in tariffs and so they they don’t have a huge market for storage right now and so aren’t rushing to develop low cost systems for their own markets that we can use. And it’s not as if we can be expected to do something ourselves for our own benefit. That’s not what Australia is about. Australia is about 2% of the population ripping stuff out of or off the land, whether ore or crops or cows, and flogging it off overseas for manufactured goods while everyone else provides services to each other. Here in Adelaide there’s almost no industry, it’s just full of people servicing each other all day long. Now this isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but it would be nice if someone with Japanese experience could arrange for a company in Japan with access to manufacturing capacity in China to produce home storage systems for the currently unique Australian market. It’s almost enough to make me consider speculating about thinking about making a plan to ruminate upon doing something about it myself. But then I lie down and have a Bex and the feeling passes.

By: Bob_Wallace

Bob_Wallace — Tue, 08 Oct 2013 19:44:00 +0000

Have you any real world costs for non-lead acid battery storage?

I see people making claims based on batteries they buy from China via eBay, but I’m wondering about more “mainstream” solutions.

By: Ronald Brakels

Ronald Brakels — Tue, 08 Oct 2013 19:28:00 +0000

Yep. And with new rooftop solar now getting eight cents (or sometimes zero cents) for each kilowatt-hour they export to grid someone with rooftop solar paying the current average of about 28 cents a kilowatt-hour will now break even with 20 cent a kilowatt-hour storage. We will go for maintenance free battery chemistries rather than lead-acid, but fortunately these now pretty cheap too.

By: Bob_Wallace

Bob_Wallace — Tue, 08 Oct 2013 18:58:00 +0000

At current AU installed solar prices and storage in lead-acid batteries costing about 20c/kWh it’s already cheaper to make and store ones own than to purchase.

By: Ronald Brakels

Ronald Brakels — Tue, 08 Oct 2013 18:48:00 +0000

All up I paid 42 cents a kilowatt-hour on my last electricity bill. With current exchange rates that’s about 39.5 US cents a kilowatt-hour.

By: Bob_Wallace

Bob_Wallace — Tue, 08 Oct 2013 18:42:00 +0000

Add in the fact that electricity is very expensive in Australia.

And that as coal plants are shut down due to low demand utility companies are likely to attempt increasing prices to cover their losses.

And that end-user storage is starting to appear. The ability to produce and store ones electricity for less than grid costs will keep solar installations booming.

By: Will E

Will E — Tue, 08 Oct 2013 18:22:00 +0000

the government and utilities will have no say no more in this.
I was in Australia 2 years ago, going from Perth to Broome and there is so much sun and so much wind in Australia and solar panels are so cheap, the Aussis themselves will install it with no subsidies involved smart ass they are.
and make the profits for themselves.
Will E, Netherlands