Comments on: Electric Vehicles Speeding Toward 7% Of All Global Sales By 2020

By: Jouni Valkonen

Jouni Valkonen — Fri, 27 Dec 2013 17:24:00 +0000

Elon and Tesla just assumes that there will be c. 8% annual cost reductions in batteries. This is based on same economic principles as Swanson’s Law. Therefore this is very sound estimate.

By: Adam Grant

Adam Grant — Thu, 03 Oct 2013 15:32:00 +0000

The runup in gas prices over the last five years appears to have reduced car ownership among younger North American consumers. As EV’s have the potential to be cheaper-to-produce than ICEV’s once battery prices come down, it’s likely that more people will be able to afford a car.
On the other hand, once self-driving cars enable a wider range of ownership models, the total number of cars may decline again.

By: Adam Grant

Adam Grant — Thu, 03 Oct 2013 15:25:00 +0000

It’s also reasonable to expect the balance to tip from hybrids toward pure electric vehicles as batteries improve. Once battery prices come down, a pure electric vehicles should be cheaper to manufacture and maintain than one containing all the subsystems necessary to support an internal combustion engine.

By: Bob_Wallace

Bob_Wallace — Tue, 01 Oct 2013 16:01:00 +0000

I understand what you are saying.

I’m not sure you understand what I said.

By: arne-nl

arne-nl — Tue, 01 Oct 2013 15:56:00 +0000

It’s the input that counts, not what is under the hood. A conventional hybrid uses 100% petrol and 0% electricity. That does not count as electrification,

By: Ivor O'Connor

Ivor O'Connor — Tue, 01 Oct 2013 03:55:00 +0000

POTS had some advantages over VOIP.

By: Bob_Wallace

Bob_Wallace — Tue, 01 Oct 2013 02:10:00 +0000

You can have telephones without having a working grid. The phone exchange puts power in its system – runs separate from building power.

By: Ivor O'Connor

Ivor O'Connor — Tue, 01 Oct 2013 01:03:00 +0000

I did not know it was possible to have telephones without electricity but that is clearly what the above shows…

And that more people had radios than electricity. Perhaps they owned radios so they could be popular when they went to their friends that had electricity?

By: Bob_Wallace

Bob_Wallace — Tue, 01 Oct 2013 00:18:00 +0000

I think we’re in the very early days of a transformation that’s going to be on the scale (or larger) of computers, the internet, digital photography, cell phones and a bunch of other stuff.

Tipping point has been reached. Change is accelerating but nowhere near what the rate will be going forward.

Solar on your roof makes driving close to free.

13,000 annual miles with 0.3 kWh/mile and 4.5 solar hours per day means that one needs less than 3 kW of panels. Installed solar prices will drop to no more than $2/watt (probably less). $6,000 max.

Panels last 40+ years. $6,000 / 40 / 13,000 = $0.01/mile. Add in a bit to pay the grid to move your solar to where you park during the day.

By: spec9

spec9 — Mon, 30 Sep 2013 23:55:00 +0000

I wonder if residential solar PV will start driving EV sales. Once you get those nice cheap clean solar PV electrons flowing, it is hard not to try to find other uses for them.

By: Bob_Wallace

Bob_Wallace — Mon, 30 Sep 2013 22:21:00 +0000

50% by 2025?

That would be tough, but not impossible. I assume (safely) that Elon has much better information about what is ‘soon coming’ in the battery field.
Give us a 200 mile EV for $25k or less by ~2017 and I can see 50% by 2025.
And, if that happens, ICEVs a small niche product by 2030. Mostly PHEVs for people who do drive well beyond the normal “wired” routes.

By: Jouni Valkonen

Jouni Valkonen — Mon, 30 Sep 2013 20:57:00 +0000

I would add that also the uncertainty toward the near future oil price will continue to climb, and this will give governments clear economic incentive to subsidy electric vehicles and tax gas mobiles in order to get rid of oil dependency. It is always more profitable to export oil than to burn it in the gasoline or diesel engines.

By: Jouni Valkonen

Jouni Valkonen — Mon, 30 Sep 2013 20:50:00 +0000

Elon Musk predicts that by 2025 50 % of all sold cars are fully electric.

I think that to put a linear projection here, is just silly. Because electric vehicle sales are following exponential trajectory.

This projection also assumes that all development in battery technology is halted from 2013 onwards.

By: Shiggity

Shiggity — Mon, 30 Sep 2013 19:59:00 +0000

Once trucks and SUV’s get electrified, (battery tech is almost there), the % will be significantly higher. So far there hasn’t been one good plug-in, battery, or hybrid truck or SUV. That will change by 2015.

By: Bob_Wallace

Bob_Wallace — Mon, 30 Sep 2013 18:58:00 +0000

I’m open to counterargument but I see value in inclusion.

7% are now driving electrics. Not a puny 0.1%/whatever.

“Hey! Electrics are taking over market share.”

And calling traditional hybrids “electrics” might get more people thinking about why their electric car can’t take advantage of cheaper grid energy, but must generate all its electricity with expensive fuel.

“Hey! Where’s my damn plug?”

By: arne-nl

arne-nl — Mon, 30 Sep 2013 18:49:00 +0000

This is the first time I have seen ordinary hybrids, which use nothing but petrol, being promoted as EV’s. I protest.

By: Bob_Wallace

Bob_Wallace — Mon, 30 Sep 2013 18:45:00 +0000

I can’t predict the future but when I see someone use a ruler to draw a straight line for new technology adoption as is done in Chart 1.1 I’m willing to bet they can’t either.

That’s some foolishness there.

Between now and 2020 it almost certain that battery prices and vehicle prices will continue to drop. That ranges will increase. That more charging stations will be installed. That range anxiety and neo-phobia will decline. That car buyers will become more aware of the lower operating costs of EVs/PHEVs. That a wider variety of EVs/PHEVs will become available so that people will find it easier to pick one that is “pretty” to them. That more people will experience the fun of driving a really responsive and quiet EV. That wireless/inductive charging will become better known and cheaper.

All of these are uptake accelerators. Each of them will bend the curve upward from a straight line to an exponential curve.

If you’ve lived through the transition from typewriters to computers. the transition from film to digital, or any other major technology shifts you know there’s something amiss with that straight line.

By: beernotwar

beernotwar — Mon, 30 Sep 2013 18:27:00 +0000

I would bet the number is bigger than 7% by 2020. I expect a surge in a couple of years when the next generation of storage becomes broadly available to consumers. We saw a surge this year when the price and range values moved significantly in consumers’ favor. I believe there will be another big jump once range reaches the 200 mile mark and/or recharge times get reduced to 15 minutes or less. Whether by better batteries or standardized fast charging stations being made available, people will put up with shorter ranges if recharge is fast enough. The other advantages of EV’s are going to become more widely known as well, driving more sales.

But I’m concerned about the manufacturing side keeping up with demand. Will the big companies build enough EV’s to fuel demand if it goes over the 10% mark?