Obviously were this a production graph the bar sections would be different sized but the message would be the same.

By plotting nameplate capacity one can easier see where the most activity is going to be.

This is really elementary.

Your chart is just silly and useless, period.

China had been saying that they would not be able to peak CO2 emissions until 2030. Recently they announced that they thought they could peak by 2025.

This will be helped by capping the amount of coal which can be burned at 2011 levels. The cap will go into effect in/post 2015. That will mean a roll-back of coal consumption to 6% below 2012 use.

Following Fukushima China put their nuclear plans on hold for a year. After that period of review they dialed back planed builds by about one third. They announced that they would build no more reactors inland, only at more remote sites along the coast. Some of the decision seems to be based on safety and protection of freshwater sources and some on lack of cooling water inland.

China’s nuclear plans were made when the price of wind generation was higher and the cost of solar was much higher. It’s likely that China now sees renewables a cheaper, faster and safer route to a cleaner grid than nuclear.

China will almost certainly continue to build new coal plants. But these are super-critical plants and will replace less efficient older plants. The amount of building will be determined by the annual coal allowance.

How can China turn things around faster? First, I doubt they can if it means starving the grid. The government wants to keep people from getting too unhappy and I suspect that, in general, most Chinese are more concerned about keeping their current quality of life from slipping than they are concerned about climate change.

I think China, like the rest of the world, is waiting for a better storage solution. If we get a storage system that can be manufactured on a very large scale and can store electricity for or below the price of pump-up hydro then I think we’ll see a massive move to renewables everywhere. And China may install faster than anyone.
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People aren’t paying much attention to geothermal but it’s getting some play in Indonesia and parts of Africa. With some breakthroughs in enhanced geothermal in the last year or so, activity on ‘hot rock’ should pick up.

I suspect tidal is getting close to being recognized. There are tidal turbines in use now and they seem to be proving themselves. If acceptable cost projections start to emerge then tidal should start to get some love.

All the scenarios seem to assume successful deployment of all the nuclear power stations under construction, and perhaps more besides. Possible, but not certain. If the Chinese have got serious about safety, this will drive up costs.

The invisible contribution of geothermal is surprising, as is the absence of tidal.