Comments on: Shai Agassi — Lessons From Tesla, Part II

By: Bob_Wallace

Bob_Wallace — Sun, 13 Oct 2013 16:57:00 +0000

After a few years of driving extremely responsive electric vehicles we’ll laugh at the noise of those old clunky gasmobiles.

Such an old school racket. “Grandpa’s got the flivver out again.”

Take a peek at the future – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IElqf-FCMs8

By: andhavarapu

andhavarapu — Sun, 13 Oct 2013 14:54:00 +0000

Agreed. But will it ever sound as good as an ICE? NO. It is physically impossible, because it is so quiet inherently. And there is no denying that the sound is part of the experience.

And then only relevant for today is the whole story of range. ICE cars can go 1000km, but electric can’t. I am confident it will change though.

By: George Strong

George Strong — Thu, 22 Aug 2013 20:51:00 +0000

Actually Tesla’s battery pack has between 2500-3000 full discharges before it reaches 70% capacity. 2500 250 mile discharges is 625,000 miles.

By: shecky vegas

shecky vegas — Thu, 22 Aug 2013 17:35:00 +0000

Sorry, Shai, but while your vehicle was fine, your business model stunk. For a universal, one-size-only battery swap, the focus should have been soley on fleet sales, not the general public.
Because as soon as you get your battery out there, some schmuck will come along with their own version and say, “Lookie here! I got one, too! Change your battery at my place!” After that, fifteen more “innovators” will pop up, all with batteries of their own.
And the general public is NOT going to sit and decide which battery, and thus car, to go with, when they can pick any gas station in the country and the get the exact same gas to fill their vehicle. Ain’t gonna happen.
You had a good product, Shai, but you picked the wrong market.

By: Jonas Best

Jonas Best — Thu, 22 Aug 2013 14:36:00 +0000

I think Shai should include the calculations and assumptions on how he gets to the battery costs per mile. Let’s assume the 85kW/h battery of a Models S (which is supposed to have the cheapest battery cost per kW/h) costs 20’000 $ and expected miles are 200’000 (this is actually much more than most people drive during the 8 year warranty period), then we end up with 0.10 $ per mile. How is he ending up with 0.03$ per mile? In my example that would mean that either he assumes Model S battery would cost only 6000$ by 2015 or the expected miles are about 600’000, both I find very hard to believe.

By: Zachary Shahan

Zachary Shahan — Thu, 22 Aug 2013 13:54:00 +0000

This is going to be upgraded to a “Reader Post” — keep your eyes peeled. (And add/change anything you’d like before it’s posted. :D)

By: Zachary Shahan

Zachary Shahan — Thu, 22 Aug 2013 13:54:00 +0000

By the way, want a proper credit / link anywhere? Or just credit it as coming from “Shiggity”?

By: j

Thu, 22 Aug 2013 09:39:00 +0000

apple to apple would be Normal car w/o tank vs EV w/o battery, or Normal car + fuel vs EV with battery + recharging costs.

By: Bob_Wallace

Bob_Wallace — Thu, 22 Aug 2013 03:33:00 +0000

China has several hundred BYD e6 taxis on their roads. They rapid charge them during driver meal breaks.

Lots of their taxis are operating 24 hours a day.

By: Shiggity

Shiggity — Thu, 22 Aug 2013 03:24:00 +0000

A paradigm shift occurs when a product comes out that is *fundamentally* better than current products at a similar price point.

Typical cars will NEVER be as safe as a car with a crumple zone as big as a model S, it’s physically impossible.

A typical ICE car will NEVER be able to accelerate and generate as much torque as an electric car in the 0-60 range.

A typical car will NEVER be as efficient as an electric. An ICE engine maxes out at ~40% with energy conversion, an electric motor is above 90%.

A typical car will NEVER be as simple as a pure electric, there are simply more moving parts.

A typical car will NEVER be able to match the handling / AWD of a vehicle with two independently controllable electric motors that can dynamically send power to any of the wheels at any time.

A typical car’s suspension will NEVER be able to match the smoothness of an all air suspension.

A typical car will ALWAYS need more maintenance work.

No oil company is ever going to give fuel away for free, while Tesla will give electricity away for free forever.

The list goes on and on and on. These are fundamental improvements that all ICE cars cannot match, because they physically cannot.

By: George Strong

George Strong — Thu, 22 Aug 2013 02:12:00 +0000

Tesla has stated that they aren’t sure how much their fast vs free swap stations they’ll deploy.

That being said, there will be a business case for swap until fast charging at 150kWh or faster is ubiquitous.

Think taxis.

By: Bob_Wallace

Bob_Wallace — Thu, 22 Aug 2013 00:31:00 +0000

It will be a few years before we can tell if he was on the right road.

Swappable batteries may have no future. Or they may be used only for long drives. Doubtful that we would go to swapping batteries for everyday use.

By: George Strong

George Strong — Thu, 22 Aug 2013 00:28:00 +0000

Shai’s problem is that he was 5 years too early. That’s the problem with seeing the future. You still don’t know exactly when it is going to come.