Comments on: Solar Costs & Grid Prices On Collision Course

By: arne-nl

arne-nl — Sat, 27 Jul 2013 15:02:00 +0000

Hi Robert, have you ever tasted the joys of running your own power plant? Just buy some PV! I guarantee you you’ll love it.

For me, one of the irresistible advantages of residential PV (or actually any building mounted PV) is the fact that is reuses existing land, and doesn’t claim any new. Most large scale renewable energy projects (wind/solar/hydro/biomass) affect the landscape. In different ways, some more than others. Land is scarce on a planet with more than 7 billion souls.

Another advantage, less appealing but nonetheless important, is that it generates the energy right there where it is consumed. Lack of transportation capacity and hassles with getting a new high voltage line approved and financed is too often holding back large scale renewable energy projects.

But if you look at it as a purely economic proposition, you are right, but aren’t you making your life a bit dull?

Btw, I have done both. I operate my very own fusion energy harvesters AND have invested in offshore wind through meewind.nl.

By: Matt

Matt — Tue, 16 Jul 2013 00:58:00 +0000

Doug I edited my post to make it clear, I mean without TOU people will not move when they use power. Not that they should move where they live. You need smart meters and the utility to use TOU pricing. Which might be limited in some states by the state rules on the utility.

By: Doug

Doug — Sun, 14 Jul 2013 19:32:00 +0000

Hawaii is an exciting place for solar!

By: Doug

Doug — Sun, 14 Jul 2013 19:31:00 +0000

I’m confused Matt. Why do you think people need to move to get TOU rates? It’s just a matter of the utilities installing the necessary smart meters, which is already happening by the million.

By: Doug

Doug — Sun, 14 Jul 2013 19:29:00 +0000

Time of use should be mandatory for all electricity users. Our entire electric generation and distribution system is based on peak usage, which can be drastically reduced.

By: Doug

Doug — Sun, 14 Jul 2013 19:27:00 +0000

Agree. Utilities in CA are increasing rates consistently at 5%/year.

By: Doug

Doug — Sun, 14 Jul 2013 19:26:00 +0000

A revision to this analysis should include the impact of multiple rate tiers that hit many homeowners hard. Also, SCE is increasing rates at 5%/year, not 2%

By: Zachary Shahan

Zachary Shahan — Wed, 10 Jul 2013 19:48:00 +0000

Thanks. Unfort., was one of the hottest ones! It’s added now, but also attaching it here.

By: Zachary Shahan

Zachary Shahan — Wed, 10 Jul 2013 18:02:00 +0000

Definitely support you on this. And I know SEIA is focusing a lot of attention on this these days. One of the key problems is that these requirements vary from place to place… and getting an overarching national policy seems unlikely.

By: Zachary Shahan

Zachary Shahan — Wed, 10 Jul 2013 17:58:00 +0000

Wow, nice, thanks for those details! NM is certainly on of these initial breakthrough markets.

By: mcutlerwelsh

mcutlerwelsh — Wed, 10 Jul 2013 07:28:00 +0000

The prospect of pay parity being so close is very exciting. Good to have analysis like this.

By: Ken

Ken — Wed, 10 Jul 2013 02:45:00 +0000

Thermal plant heat loss (typically 2/3 of the heat generated) is one reason I can’t get excited about nuclear. It still dumps a lot of heat into the local environment (rivers, lakes, air).

By: Ken

Ken — Wed, 10 Jul 2013 02:39:00 +0000

I would like to see more discussion of the distributed generation trade-offs of residential solar. Large central renewable farms need costly distribution lines & are less robust in the event of disasters. However, present grid-tied residential solar systems will shut down if the grid goes down. Next generation micro-inverters will be easier to configure for stand alone or local grid operation. This may give the edge to residential solar.

By: Ken

Ken — Wed, 10 Jul 2013 02:30:00 +0000

I totally agree. Having installed a 5KW system recently @ $4/W before subsidies, I can attest that homeowner association rejections & re-configuring add significant cost. I also had structural inspectors, electrical inspectors & power company approvals. All this cost months of time, thus more cost.

By: Wayne Williamson

Wayne Williamson — Tue, 09 Jul 2013 23:29:00 +0000

although I find it interesting that gasoline in Hawaii is only about 25 percent more expensive.

By: Wayne Williamson

Wayne Williamson — Tue, 09 Jul 2013 23:27:00 +0000

just an fyi…Hawaii is around 40 cents a kilowatt…I pretty sure that’s why they are going all out for wind and solar….Florida is around 11 cents…but little to no incentive for solar or wind.

By: JamesWimberley

JamesWimberley — Tue, 09 Jul 2013 20:40:00 +0000

Great post. One of the charts is duplicated, replacing a missing one.

By: Adam Grant

Adam Grant — Tue, 09 Jul 2013 20:28:00 +0000

A 2% annual increase in fossil costs may be too conservative. The peak oil crowd make various good points about coming reductions in the supply of various fossil hydrocarbons, e.g. natural gas supply constricted in North America after 2017. Of course, the hardcore peak oil enthusiast then goes on to predict Malthusian doom for humanity, whereas it seems more likely that this will merely improve market conditions for a fast transition to renewables.

By: Adam Grant

Adam Grant — Tue, 09 Jul 2013 20:20:00 +0000

By challenging the ability of generating companies to make a profit on fossil-derived electricity, rooftop solar will force the transition to utility-scale renewables.
Over the next 10 to 20 years efficiency improvements may begin to be offset by increased power draw from home, kitchen and garden robotics.
Power production close to use and neighbourhood-scale storage could also lead to a more robust grid.

By: Emmett

Emmett — Tue, 09 Jul 2013 18:50:00 +0000

Another way to look at this is ROI (Return on investment) Today, in Albuquerque, where residential rates are $0.12 KWH, and installed costs are dropping below $4 / watt, the ROI without any tax credits or utility rebates (on the 5 year old system currently on my house, if it were installed today and paid cash), would be just over 5%, TAX FREE. And gets better as electric rates increase. Compare that with other very low risk investments – CD’s, AAA bonds or T-bills, and it beats them all by a very wide margin.