Comments on: Wind Generation Outpacing Natural Gas In US In 2012

By: Bob_Wallace

Bob_Wallace — Tue, 25 Dec 2012 17:00:00 +0000

#2 is interesting and the thing that could break the coal industry’s back. If someone like Aquion brings a better/cheaper battery to market then one could easily see end-user storage booming.

Of course when/if we get cheap storage everyone’s game changes.

By: Ronald Brak

Ronald Brak — Tue, 25 Dec 2012 12:06:00 +0000

That’s a big question. In my state we get about a third of our electricity from wind and solar. And as a result we’re increasing our state’s wind and solar capacity. As for planning, well, the Thomas the Tank Engine club are planning to use coal forever with wind and solar capacity expansion stopping dead once we reach our 20% renewable energy target. It doesn’t seem terribly realistic but it is their plan. In reality, as we are following Germany’s solar PV cost curve the end point for daytime electricity from solar currently appears to be all of it. Consider the following possibilities:

1. Retail electricity prices are kept as they are resulting in point of use solar eventually providing most daytime electricity.

2. Retail electricity prices are dropped in the day but raised in the evening to compensate resulting in the installation of point of use solar and home and business energy storage resulting in most electricity coming from solar.

3. Retail prices are lowered in the day but not raised in the evening: Home and business storage sucks up daytime electricity and uses it at night. Lack of revenue causes generators to close down. People then install solar so they can listen to Justin Bieber and keep their beer cold.

By: Bob_Wallace

Bob_Wallace — Tue, 25 Dec 2012 01:52:00 +0000

What do you think will happen when efficiency has basically gone as far as it can and wind/solar have become sizable double digit electricity suppliers?

I don’t think you have much hydro? Are you planning storage?

In the western US we can go up to about 35% wind and solar with the grid as it is. Probably somewhat higher because we’ve installed more NG after that study was completed. What are the limits down there?

By: Ronald Brak

Ronald Brak — Tue, 25 Dec 2012 00:22:00 +0000

Natural gas is not a transitional energy source in Australia. Coal use is down, but so is natural gas consumption, with plans for new natural gas plants scrapped. This is mainly due to improved energy efficiency, rooftop solar, and wind power. The US is behind Australia, but as these three factors are in operation in the US, I expect demand for gas will drop there also.

By: ronwagn

ronwagn — Mon, 24 Dec 2012 20:59:00 +0000

I added your link to my blog.

By: ronwagn

ronwagn — Mon, 24 Dec 2012 20:58:00 +0000

Thanks for the link. it does not agree with all the other such graphs I have seen, but we will see. I loved wind and solar, before I loved natural gas. Not loyal to my preconceived ideas. Wind and solar have their downsides too: visual blight, maintenance, noise etc. I want to see wind and solar compete without subsidies. Keep up on GE’s new fabric wind tubine blades. They may lower cost, and ease installation.

I would like to see the color of wind turbines match the surrounding area. Maybe camo. Seriously.

By: Bob_Wallace

Bob_Wallace — Mon, 24 Dec 2012 20:25:00 +0000

Wrong.

Natural gas generation, when you include operating costs – fuel, cost slightly more than wind.

Check LCOEs…
http://en.openei.org/apps/TCDB/

Natural gas is, at best, a temporary energy source. We will run out. The faster we use it, the more things we use it for (look at your list), the faster it will run out.

NG is a useful transition fuel. We can use it to get coal off our grid quicker and to fill in for wind and solar while we develop affordable storage. But to view NG as an actual long term energy solution is foolish.
Expanding our uses would also be unwise. NG could be a valuable asset in the future if we don’t foolishly burn it up.

By: ronwagn

ronwagn — Mon, 24 Dec 2012 20:11:00 +0000

Wind costs about twice as much as natural gas power, it is can be partnered with natural gas plants that supply base power however.

Natural gas is the future of energy. It is replacing dirty old coal plants, and dangerous expensive nuclear plants. It will fuel cars, vans, buses, locomotives, aircraft, ships, tractors, air conditioners, engines of all kinds. It costs far less. It will help keep us out of more useless wars, where we shed our blood and money. It is used to make many products. It lowers CO2 emissions. Over 3,700 natural gas story links on my free blog. An annotated bibliography of live links, updated daily. The worldwide picture of natural gas.
ronwagnersrants . blogspot . com