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Published on August 22nd, 2012 | by Adam Johnston

11

Solar Panel Market to Advance by 15.3% through 2015

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August 22nd, 2012 by
 
 
A recent report released from publisher Infiniti Research points to further growth for the global solar panel industry.

The report finds advances in photovoltaic (PV) technologies will help the global solar panels market to increase by a compound annual growth rate of 15.3% between 2011 to 2015, the report said.

However, despite the upward trend due to better technology, the report also noted fluctuating solar energy availability across seasons could challenge further advances in the market.

“The increase in R&D was another major prevailing trend in the Global Solar Panels market. In addition to reduction in policies, there were also favorable policies and procedures that existed for boosting the Global Solar Panels market,” said one of the analysts from the authorizing publisher in the statement.

The regions covered in the report included: the Americas, Europe, Asia, along with the Middle East and Africa.

First Solar Inc., Suntech Power Holdings Co. Limited, Trina Solar Limited, and Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Limited will be the key vendors who will control much of the market, the report noted.

Source: PR Newswire
Image Credit: Engineers Checking Solar Panels Image via Shutterstock

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About the Author

Is currently studying at the School of the Environment Professional Development program in Renewable Energy from the University of Toronto. Adam graduated from the University of Winnipeg with a three-year B.A. combined major in Economics and Rhetoric, Writing & Communications. Adam also writes for Solar Love and also owns his own part time tax preparation business. His eventual goal is to be a cleantech policy analyst, and is currently sharpening his skills as a renewable energy writer. You can follow him on Twitter @adamjohnstonwpg or at www.adammjohnston.wordpress.com.



  • mds

    Mr. Johnston,
    I recommend reading this link:
    http://www.pv-tech.org/guest_blog/100gw_of_demand_and_the_coming_inflection_point_in_the_us_solar_market – November 2011 “100GW of demand, and the coming inflection point in the US solar market”
    This may be the best and most important article written on solar PV this decade. It may give you a far better idea of what solar is going to do this decade than any bean counters using past data trends possibly can.

  • mds

    Actually it was 27 GW globally installed and twice that manufatured.
    Anne and RobS are probably closer with 70% and 60%, than I am with 50%.

  • mds

    I agree with other comments here. Global solar will soon return to 50% growth per year. The only thing a republican attack on solar in the USA can achieve is a temporary slow down of solar in the USA and more solar manufacturing in other countries. We’ll end up buying panels from them instead of making them ourselves.
    Solar is already below end-of-grid parity in a number of places in the world. It is continuing to get cheaper. Why would it slow down to 15% growth for three years? The low cost suppliers and installers are going to remain after the shake out and solar PV will take off faster than ever.

    The comments on the post below from 2007 all favor a slow down in solar PV going forward. Any slow downs were temporary, even with the silicon manufacturing shortage and the global financial collapse. I didn’t make any predictions back then. I just thought: “well we’ll see”, not any more. Solar will grow faster than 15% CAGR.
    http://thefraserdomain.typepad.com/energy/2007/12/fyi-solar-cell.html “PV production up 50% in 2007” – Dec 2007
    “Solar Cell Production Jumps 50 Percent in 2007” “jumped to 3,800 megawatts worldwide in 2007”
    “Growing by an impressive average of 48 percent each year since 2002” “world’s fastest-growing energy source”
    Good plot of PV production growth from 1975 to 2007. mds
    2017 @ 48% per year = 3.8 GW x 50.4 = 191.6 GW per year PV production predicted in 10 years
    2021 @ 48% per year = 3.8 GW x 241.9 = 919.2 GW per year PV production predicted in 14 years
    If you predict out, based on 3.8 GW of global solar PV production in 2007 and 1.48% CAGR since then, we should reach a global production of 27 GW this year in 2012. That was the figure for last year. Solar has been growing faster than 48% for a DECADE! A stabilized growth of 15% for even 3 years is a fool’s prediction. We’re talking disruptive growth here, not linear and stable, big difference.

    • Bob_Wallace

      mds, did you follow the comments on this GTM article? Some interesting input on where the inflated costs are re: rooftop solar. Looks like hardware and labor are in great shape, it’s the permitting and paperwork that is keeping prices high.
      http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/Signs-of-the-California-Solar-Initiatives-Coming-End/

      Get US prices under $2/watt (where Germany probably is by now) and we could look at triple digit growth for a while.

    • http://cleantechnica.com/ Zachary Shahan

      totally agree.

      it’s a real shame that Republican voters don’t see that attacking solar is essentially just attacking US jobs.

      but isn’t that always the story?

  • RobS

    I predict they are wrong by a factor of 4, it will be closer to 60% CAGR then 15%.

  • Billtoe

    LOL! Seriously, you could stop a random person on the street and ask them what they think the CAGR for solar will be over the next 5 years, and the probability of them being close, would be about the same as this “random guess” from Infiniti research.

    • http://www.facebook.com/moderategreencentrist Adam Johnston

      It’s interesting this report that I wrote about. Whether this is underestimating the numbers or overestimating remains to be seen.

      • http://www.facebook.com/matthew.t.peffly Matthew Todd Peffly

        Would be interesting to plot their 3-5 projections over the last 15 years or so.

  • Anne

    CAGR for the previous 4 years (2007 – 2011) has been more than 70%. I can hardly imagine the growth plummeting like that. If anything has been a constant thorughout the past decade it is the consistent underestimation of the solar PV market by marketing research firms.

    My guess for the next 4 years is 50%.

    • Bob_Wallace

      Solar is hitting grid parity in many parts of the world.

      I can see some slowing in growth rate simply because the base from which growth is calculated becomes larger and larger, but these folks are predicting less an a single doubling over the next four years.

      That, I find low-balling.

      End of 2010 saw a cumulative solar capacity of 40GW. I’m finding 62GW at the end of 2011. China, alone, is planning to install 20GW of PV solar by 2015. More than doubling 62GW in four years, I think so.

      Let’s not forget that PV prices continue to fall, economies continue to improve, nuclear continues its anti-Renaissance, coal plants continue to close, and concern about global warming continues to increase.

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