Comments on: Solar PV Close to 50c/Watt

By: Zachary Shahan

Zachary Shahan — Tue, 31 Jul 2012 23:23:00 +0000

Thanks!

By: Bob_Wallace

Bob_Wallace — Sat, 28 Jul 2012 17:55:00 +0000

Someone has to keep you on task…

To quickly/easily calculate average grid price over a number of years you can use this page…

http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/tech_lcoe.html
Plug years into the Period (Years) at the top.

Then enter current electricity price and expected inflation rate in the Today’s Utility Electricity Cost section.

The answer will pop up as Levelized Cost of Utility Electricity.

(You don’t need to mess with any of the other numbers just to use this function.)

—

Mess with people. Calculate for 30, 40, 50, 60… years. We really don’t know how long solar panels last. After all, they’re just a thin piece of rock underneath a pane of glass. And glass can last hundreds of years.

By: Zachary Shahan

Zachary Shahan — Sat, 28 Jul 2012 10:22:00 +0000

damn, you just gave me another article to write.

Title: 80% Discount on Electricity Now Available

By: Zachary Shahan

Zachary Shahan — Sat, 28 Jul 2012 10:20:00 +0000

Thanks for the update.

By: Bob_Wallace

Bob_Wallace — Wed, 25 Jul 2012 20:16:00 +0000

I wouldn’t bet on a ten year lifespan for the inverters. Off the grid, inside the building, inverters are lasting longer than ten years and my understanding is that the technology has improved over the last few years.

I think you might be reading a ten year warranty as a life expectancy. The SMA Sunny Boy inverter, for example, comes with a ten year warranty but a 20 year life expectancy.

Twenty years from now inverter prices are likely to be very much less than today. They will likely have become a commodity. Replacing them once in 40 years shouldn’t increase the cost of electricity very much.

Panel life, the best field data we have right now is for panels that are over 30 years old. The delam problem has been minor (1% -2% of all panels failed due to delam and connection corrosion problems, IIRC).

And that’s with 30+ year old technology.

Perhaps it will only be 70% cheaper to go solar rather than 80% cheaper…. ;o)

By: Anne

Anne — Wed, 25 Jul 2012 19:59:00 +0000

The panels can last a very, very long time if the seals stay intact and no delamination occurs. Then you quickly get cell corrosion and it’s game over.

But I’ll likely have to replace the inverters after 10 years. Especially the electrolytic capacitors have a limited life span.

By: Bob_Wallace

Bob_Wallace — Wed, 25 Jul 2012 18:36:00 +0000

At a 3% inflation rate 22 e-cents electricity is going to average 29.5 e-c over a 20 year period. Just barely under twice as much for electricity as your 15 e-c.

Your electricity purchased at half retail.Assume your solar system is pumping out power 40 years from now (a relatively safe assumption), electricity buyers would have paid an average of 37 e-c per kWh to your 20 years of 15 e-cents. Averaged over 40 years you’re going to spend only 7.5 e-cents per kWh to retail purchasers 37 e-cents.Anyone find an 80% discount on electricity attractive?

By: Anne

Anne — Wed, 25 Jul 2012 17:59:00 +0000

Solar PV is growing in The Netherlands, but slowly, without feed in tariffs. There are some municipal subsidies. Most people have short term vision and will only consider solar if the payback time is about 5-7 years. That is still not feasible. 10-15 years is doable now.

By: Zachary Shahan

Zachary Shahan — Wed, 25 Jul 2012 16:39:00 +0000

it’s still a very important input to LCOE.

Many grid parity assumptions are based on it.

And it is a globally relevant figure.

By: Zachary Shahan

Zachary Shahan — Wed, 25 Jul 2012 16:38:00 +0000

that’s great to hear. hopefully that will result in a big boom in solar in the NL.

By: Zachary Shahan

Zachary Shahan — Wed, 25 Jul 2012 16:38:00 +0000

Oh, just realized this was you, Anne. Are you in the NL? Thought you were American (and in the US) for some reason.

By: Zachary Shahan

Zachary Shahan — Wed, 25 Jul 2012 16:36:00 +0000

lol.

By: Zachary Shahan

Zachary Shahan — Wed, 25 Jul 2012 16:34:00 +0000

lol

By: Anne

Anne — Wed, 25 Jul 2012 12:32:00 +0000

I have a PV system in The Netherlands. System prices that are now being offered can give you electricity at 15 eurocents per kWh. And that is a fixed price for at least 20 years. Try finding an energy company that offers you such a contract! Normal consumer prices are 22 eurocents per kWh.

By: RobS

RobS — Wed, 25 Jul 2012 08:26:00 +0000

Yes but unless you want to have an unreadable headline that has an LCOE listed for every city, village, town and hamlet in the world then you need a catch all metric. A certain $/W will correspond to a different c/Kwh LCOE in different areas but as $/W falls the LCOE will fall everywhere commensurately, therefore it provides a far more consistent reproducible metric for tracking cost over time.

By: Captivation

Captivation — Tue, 24 Jul 2012 22:15:00 +0000

Glad you’re only joking Needless offense flows fast in this world of text without context. Text is essentially a narrow band disguised as broadband. Humor pushes the bandwidth to its limit and often backfires. But like drivers at the racetrack, we all eventually push the metal until the next crash and then return temporarily to cautious motoring.

By: Bob_Wallace

Bob_Wallace — Tue, 24 Jul 2012 21:30:00 +0000

World enjoys jerking your chain. (Apparently news to you. ;o)

By: Captivation

Captivation — Tue, 24 Jul 2012 21:15:00 +0000

World loses all sense of irony. News at 13:00

By: Bob_Wallace

Bob_Wallace — Tue, 24 Jul 2012 18:35:00 +0000

Totalitarian states are falling to democratic movements.

That’s new to you?

By: Ross

Ross — Tue, 24 Jul 2012 18:34:00 +0000

You’ll have to give us more than that.