i’d bet on them holding the lead. wonder more if the differential will be linear or exponentially more as the years go on.

on the Volt: yes, it definitely sounds like a step up. MPG rocks it. basically, it offers driving an EV for nearly everything, but not the warranted or unwarranted concern of running out of battery power without a place to charge.

and the followers (most people) who have now found the Prius rocks will take a bit longer to get on the EV bandwagon.

“First year sales in 2000 of the Prius and Honda Insight were 9,350, with the Prius accounting for just 5,000. 

A total of 17,345 Volts and Leafs sold or nearly double the first year sale figures for the 2000 gas-hybrid vehicles and more than triple the number of Prius sales.”
http://johnhanger.blogspot.com/2012/01/electric-car-sales-triple-priuss-first.html 

The Leaf started production on October 22, 2010.  Production of the electric car was disrupted for several months beginning in March 2011 due to the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, and as a result, Nissan announced it was not able to reach its 2011 production target of 50,000 Leafs.  Nissan sold more than  20,000 Leafs in 2011 worldwide.

The Prius was first produced in 1997.  In 2000 5,562 units were sold.  This rose to 15,556 in the fourth year of production.  (Wiki)

That’s a better start for EVs/PHEVs.  Were I a betting person, I’d be willing to bet that they hold their lead.  Remember, a PHEV Prius will be joining their ranks.

“(It’s interesting A123 is now claiming 2,000 deep cycles when they were claiming 3,700 a few years earlier.)”

Isn’t it the case that A123 was claiming 3,700 cycles for their smaller lithium batteries but only 1,000 cycles for their EV battery packs?

Honda is using Toshiba SCiB batteries in the Fit EV.

What vehicle threatens?  Go drive a Volt or Ampera.  No range anxiety and full EV performance for the first 40 miles.  Since 78% of USA drivers travel less than 40 miles each day, they will hardly use any gasoline.  I just got to drive a friend’s new Volt.  Truly amazing, much smooth power transfer than for my Prius.  I could not even tell when the Volt switched from electric mode to hybrid mode, not without looking at the display.  The only thing I don’t like is the low ground clearance.  He has over 1,800 miles on his Volt with a cumulative mileage and gasoline use that works out to over 225 mpg.  (not MPGe)  That puts the Prius to shame when it comes to reducing gasoline use.  Reducing oil use to increase our energy independence and lower CO2 output are the two main points for me.
Comment made on another site:
“Prius is number one trade in for Volt purchasers.”

That means that smaller kW packs can be used for the same range.  Batteries can be more deeply discharged if there are more cycles available.

Ditto.

I think the reasoning goes back to longevity and reliability. Afaik, Lithium ion batteries have more issues with degradation than NiMH. Perhaps this has improved over the past year, but don’t forget that development on the current Prius started at least 5 years ago.

Toyota have a rock solid reputation for reliability and they needed to be sure that the battery lasts the lifetime of the vehicle. I guess they decided at the time that lithium ion couldn’t guarantee that.

That’s my take on it.

They should bring-down the cost of the plugin-Prius and only offer this version with at least 30-40km of range.