Comments on: LCD Panel Makers Could Drive 60% Reduction in Thin-Film Solar PV Costs

By: Zachary Shahan

Zachary Shahan — Thu, 21 Jun 2012 13:20:00 +0000

Good to hear! Last i heard, just the other day, the NL was behind in its emissions reductions compared to other EU countries. Was disappointed to hear it especially since I love the NL and lived there for a bit.

By: Jan

Jan — Mon, 18 Jun 2012 11:03:00 +0000

In the Netherlands electricity cost are about EUR 0.22 kWh, cost for electricity from solar about 0.16.

A good step forward, could be a bit lower but it’s time for lift of for solar panels

By: Zachary Shahan

Zachary Shahan — Sun, 17 Jun 2012 13:40:00 +0000

interesting point.

it also brings into focus the ‘soft costs’ of installing solar, which the DOE is not focusing pretty strongly on to keep the fast drop in solar prices going.

By: Zachary Shahan

Zachary Shahan — Sun, 17 Jun 2012 13:36:00 +0000

yeah, this is HUGE (if it is correct)… but it’s not all that surprising. as noted above, this has been a niche market, but as it reaches these bigger numbers, the big boys can come in, reduce costs further, and profit enough from the large volumes.

By: Bob_Wallace

Bob_Wallace — Sun, 17 Jun 2012 04:58:00 +0000

Residential rooftop is averaging over $5/watt ($5.60 is the last price I saw). Panels are already a smaller part of the installation.

There’s not that much labor in a solar installation. Racks aren’t expensive. Too much money is going somewhere.

The feds just announced a $10 million prize to the company that could first install 5,000 rooftop systems for $2/watt average. By 2014. That should help shake prices down closer to what Germans are paying, $2.40/watt or less.

By: RobS

RobS — Sun, 17 Jun 2012 04:48:00 +0000

The interesting thing about the point we have reached is that in a commercial utility system the panels are now at about 30% of the total system costs and falling which means that even larger and larger falls in panel costs are having less and less impact on total system costs. Factors like land costs an mounting systems are now having a more significant impact on total costs then panels.

Panel costs are still a fairly large proportion of residential systems largely because they don’t have to pay for land and there is no opportunity cost to the use of otherwise unused rooftops.

This means that unless larger steps are made in managing balance of system costs as panels continue to fall the economics of residential systems will improve much faster than utility scale systems.

By: Bob_Wallace

Bob_Wallace — Sun, 17 Jun 2012 01:38:00 +0000

Cheap panels triple the amount of residential rooftop available.

Now only roof facing roughly south get used. Put panels on east facing slopes and the solar day starts earlier and those panels will heavily contribute until midday. At that point the panels on west facing roof slopes will take over and carry solar later into the day.

If you look at the price curve for German electricity you can see that even a modest amount of solar on their grid is bringing down midday energy prices. But morning and afternoon price peaks still remain. Positioning panels on east and west facing slopes should kill those peaks.

By: Ronald Brak

Ronald Brak — Sun, 17 Jun 2012 01:12:00 +0000

With cheaper panels there is no real need to worry about optimising overall electricity output and they can be positioned so they will supply more electricity in the late afternoon or early morning. With lower costs point of use solar would no longer be limited to roofs, but could go on walls as well.

By: David Fechter

David Fechter — Sat, 16 Jun 2012 23:36:00 +0000

Dropping the price from approximately $1.00/ watt to anything close to 30 cents per watt is an absolutely GIANT step forward in the energy marketplace. Solar roofs would become so affordable that no government assistance would be needed. With government and/or affordable loans most new private homes could have solar roofs in less than 10 years.

By: Bob_Wallace

Bob_Wallace — Sat, 16 Jun 2012 17:28:00 +0000

“Manz is now offering an integrated, turnkey thin-film CIGS innovation line in the marketplace. Initial orders are anticipated this year….”
30 cents per watt.

Now, a bit of skepticism is always in order for anything that “hasn’t happened yet”, but setting that little bit of caution aside this is a game changer.

This could bring the cost of installed solar to $2/watt or less. And that would bring the cost of solar electricity under a dime.

A dime is cheap when you consider that solar produces peak hour power.

—

A few years back NanoSolar predicted that they could bring the price of thin-film down to 30 cents/watt and the prediction was roundly greeted with laughter. This may not be NS bringing the price, but really cheap thin film seems to be in our near future.