Comments on: Germany, China, and US Could Install Record Amount of Solar in 2012

By: Zachary Shahan

Zachary Shahan — Sat, 17 Mar 2012 18:50:00 +0000

“If there is a strong reduction in the German market, good for the U.S. and other international markets. Solar panels not sold in Germany will bring down prices even faster, since that is the basic consequence of reduced demand.”

– interesting and good point.

By: Karl-Friedrich Lenz

Karl-Friedrich Lenz — Tue, 13 Mar 2012 14:16:00 +0000

Sorry, no. I think it is too early for that.

However, I have seen model calculations (by Focus, a large German magazine) that the return of investment for rooftop will still be 3.9 percent (down from close to 12 percent for a system installed today).

That’s not bad. German government bonds pay only about 2.5 percent.

For large-scale systems I rather doubt that there will be much done at 13.5 cents euro per kWh.

If there is a strong reduction in the German market, good for the U.S. and other international markets. Solar panels not sold in Germany will bring down prices even faster, since that is the basic consequence of reduced demand.

By: Zachary Shahan

Zachary Shahan — Tue, 13 Mar 2012 13:59:00 +0000

Hmm, thanks…

Do you know of some potentially reliable projections for 2012?

By: Karl-Friedrich Lenz

Karl-Friedrich Lenz — Tue, 13 Mar 2012 12:02:00 +0000

That German DIHK estimate is backed up with nothing in the way of facts and only intended to mobilize support for even more cuts to the feed-in tariff. I would advise against taking it seriously.