Comments on: Solar Costs Can Only Go Down

By: Solar Profit Margins Compared to Other Industries | CleanTechnica

Solar Profit Margins Compared to Other Industries | CleanTechnica — Sat, 19 Nov 2011 14:51:17 +0000

[…] As many are aware, the solar industry is going through a bit of a shakeout. Extremely low polysilicon prices are stressing or killing a number of solar companies. However, overall, if you look at the average […]

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Sat, 12 Nov 2011 20:06:00 +0000

I realized after I wrote my comment that the OCF isn’t going to be producing cheaper processed silicon, but turning that silicon into more efficient wafers and at considerable cost savings.

The end result is the same. The decline in panel price will be accelerated.
It feels like we may see PV break the $0.10/kWh soon.

By: mds

mds — Sat, 12 Nov 2011 19:47:00 +0000

Thanks Bob and regards. Had not seen anything on the NREL’s OCF. Guess I should prowl NREL releases. Record low cost for purified silicon AND record low cost for wafer processing if OCF delivers on promise. Truly remarkable.

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Fri, 11 Nov 2011 19:35:00 +0000

Polysilicon is going to be taking a further trip into bargain-land with a new technology breakthrough.

“A game-changing Optical Cavity Furnace developed by the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory uses optics to heat and purify solar cells at unmatched precision while sharply boosting the cells’ efficiency.

The Optical Cavity Furnace (OCF) combines the assets that photonics can bring to the process with tightly controlled engineering to maximize efficiency while minimizing heating and cooling costs.”

“At about a quarter to half the cost of a standard thermal furnace, the OCF is poised to boost the solar cell manufacturing industry in the United States by helping produce solar cells with higher quality and efficiency at a fraction of the cost.

The furnace’s process times also are significantly shorter than conventional furnaces. The Optical Cavity Furnace takes only a few minutes to process a solar wafer.”

Quicker through-feed spreads factory/equipment/labor costs over more panels. Faster processing means a lot less energy used to process the silicon.

It is expected that the OCF will boost PV efficiency from 16% to 20% while at the same time significantly cutting processing cost. That will result in a 25% cut in panel glass/aluminum, rack, labor and real estate cost.

http://www.nrel.gov/news/features/feature_detail.cfm/feature_id=1629

If the NREL has this right, it’s a major breakthrough. This alone will take solar down to the price of coal, and possibly below.