Thermal might drop as low as PV is expected to drop. Down with the cost of wind.

Then consider the value of electricity sold into afternoon/evening peak hour demand. It might turn out that these plants would spend the sunny hours storing heat and then crushing gas peakers after the sun fades. Those hours between when the sun weakens and before the night wind builds could provide an lucrative market for thermal solar, even with the added burden of air cooling….

Photovoltaics don’t require water use for cooling and the coverings can be made to be relatively “self cleaning.” They also have the advantage of being modular. As soon as a few are up the project can start producing power. This must make funding much easier, but the efficiency of PV panels remains lower than CSP and to get the capacity factor higher, energy storage is required. Many of the energy storage options require turning electricity back to heat and this leaves CSP with an efficiency advantage. Long term, even seasonal storage may even be best served with chemical storage and MIT has a new method for converting light directly into chemical storage that may have a major future impact: http://cleantechnica.com/2011/07/29/21st-century-stable-thermal-energy-storage/

With so many good options this may leave plants like the Arizona solar tower ( http://cleantechnica.com/2011/08/01/giant-arizona-solar-tower-high-energy-with-hot-air/ ) continuing to search for funding.